Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

What you need to know

This market asks whether a recognized international court will officially rule — not just investigate or raise concerns, but actually issue a formal legal judgment — that Israel or an Israeli leader committed genocide, before the end of 2027. A Yes means a court has delivered that verdict in writing. A No means no such ruling happened by the deadline, regardless of what ongoing cases, investigations, or public debates exist. The market settles Yes only if the ICC, the ICJ, or a UN-established special tribunal delivers a formal judgment on the merits — a real verdict, not a preliminary step — finding genocide occurred, by December 31, 2027. One important detail: a first-round conviction counts even if it is being appealed. But provisional measures (like the ICJ's early procedural orders in the South Africa case) do not count — those are temporary steps, not final rulings on whether genocide actually happened. None of the recent headlines provided are relevant to this market. There is no meaningful update here about the ICC, ICJ, or any genocide proceedings. If you want to follow this market, the key things to watch are: any scheduling of merits hearings in the ICJ's South Africa v. Israel case, and whether the ICC pursues charges specifically related to genocide. International legal proceedings move slowly — years, sometimes decades. The ICJ case brought by South Africa is still in early stages, and a full merits judgment by end of 2027 would be unusually fast by historical standards. The market prices this at roughly 8%, reflecting that the deadline is tight and full verdicts in international law are rare in short timeframes. The main uncertainty is not really two equal sides — it is mainly whether an extraordinarily fast legal process occurs before the clock runs out.

The odds right now

• Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?-17.5 pts (1w)9%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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