Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether any current OPEC member — beyond the UAE, which already announced its exit in April 2026 — will officially announce they are leaving the oil producers' group before the end of 2026. OPEC is the cartel of major oil-producing nations that coordinates how much oil its members pump; leaving it means a country is stepping away from those shared production agreements. A Yes means another country formally walks out the door. A No means everyone else stays, at least through year-end. The market settles Yes if any OPEC member that was part of the group when this market was created — and hasn't already announced leaving — makes an official, public withdrawal announcement by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. The announcement must be formal and on the record; rumors, leaks, or unnamed-source stories don't count. The confirmation will come from official government statements or a strong consensus of credible news reporting. The UAE's exit does not count — that already happened before this market opened. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The development most worth watching for would be any official statement from an OPEC member government expressing dissatisfaction with the group's production quotas or signaling a desire to set its own independent oil policy — that kind of signal has historically preceded formal exits. The market prices this at around 12%, reflecting that departures from OPEC are rare events — only a handful have ever happened in the group's six-decade history. That said, the UAE's exit is a real, fresh precedent that could embolden others. The uncertainty comes from not knowing how other members are privately reacting to that exit, how oil prices move over the rest of the year, and whether any country faces enough internal pressure to break ranks. History says no, but history also didn't predict the UAE leaving.

The odds right now

• Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?-0.5 pts (1w)12%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.