Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Iran's entire system of government — the Islamic Republic — completely collapses or is replaced before the end of September 2026. A Yes means the Supreme Leader's office, the Guardian Council, and the Revolutionary Guard's clerical authority are all gone, replaced by something fundamentally different. A No means the Islamic Republic is still standing in any recognizable form — even if weakened, reformed, or led by new people. Think of it as asking whether the whole engine is replaced, not just the driver. This resolves Yes only if credible news organizations broadly agree that Iran's core governing structures have ceased to function — that the Islamic Republic no longer controls a majority of its own population. That means an actual break: a new provisional government, a revolutionary council, or a new constitution taking over. Elections, internal reshuffles, or one faction beating another inside the system do not count. Losing some territory doesn't count either, unless the regime loses control of most of the country. The bar is extremely high, deliberately so. Recent headlines point to serious regional tension: the U.S. has reinstated a naval blockade on Iran, imposed new levies on ships, and declared itself 'guardian' of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has reportedly launched missile and drone attacks, and rejected U.S. claims over the strait. These are significant escalations in pressure on the Iranian government — but external military or economic pressure, on its own, is not the same as a regime collapsing from within. Whether this tension translates into internal instability is the open question. The market prices this at just 3%, meaning it sees a regime collapse by September 2026 as very unlikely — and history supports that caution. The Islamic Republic has survived wars, sanctions, and major protest movements for over four decades. That said, the current external pressure from the U.S. is unusually sharp, and internal dissatisfaction in Iran is real. The main uncertainty is not really 'two equal sides' — it's whether an unexpected, fast-moving crisis could overwhelm a system that has proven remarkably durable. That possibility exists, but remains a long shot.

The odds right now

• Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?+1.7 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.