Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu will meet face-to-face before a given deadline. Three separate deadlines are being tracked — July 24, July 31, and August 31, 2026 — each with its own odds. A 'Yes' simply means the two leaders sat down together in person at some point before that date. A 'No' means no such in-person meeting happened by the cutoff, even if they spoke by phone or video. The market settles as Yes the moment credible news outlets confirm that Trump and Netanyahu were physically in the same place and interacted — a formal summit, a sideline chat at an international event, or even a brief in-person visit would all count. The key word is 'in person': a phone call or video conference does not qualify. If no confirmed meeting happens before 11:59 PM ET on the specified date, it resolves No. The source is a consensus of credible reporting, not an official government announcement. None of the news provided is directly relevant to a Trump–Netanyahu meeting. The headlines cover wildfires, domestic U.S. stories, and a statement from Iran's Khamenei — nothing about a scheduled or completed meeting between the two leaders. The kind of news that would matter here would be reports of a planned visit, a diplomatic summit, or either leader's travel schedule placing them in the same location. The July 24 deadline sits at just 8%, reflecting how little time remains — days, not weeks. The July 31 and August 31 windows are priced much higher, at 60% and 65%, suggesting the market sees a meeting as more likely than not eventually, but timing is the real unknown. Diplomatic schedules shift quickly, and geopolitical tensions — including the Iran situation signaled in recent headlines — could either accelerate or delay a meeting. The narrow gap between the July 31 and August 31 odds also implies most of the uncertainty is front-loaded in that window.

The odds right now

• August 3167%
• July 3161%
• July 244%
• July 201%
• July 190%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu meets with Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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