Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the Islamic Republic of Iran — the system of government that has ruled Iran since 1979 — completely collapses or is replaced before the end of 2026. A 'Yes' means the whole structure is gone: the Supreme Leader's office, the clerical councils, the Revolutionary Guard's authority — all dismantled and replaced by something fundamentally different. A 'No' means the Islamic Republic is still standing on December 31, 2026, even if weakened, reformed, or led by different people. This settles 'Yes' only if there is clear, broad agreement among credible news sources that the Islamic Republic has lost real control over most of Iran — through revolution, civil war, a coup that installs an entirely new system, or full collapse. The bar is very high: elections, leadership changes, even an internal power grab that keeps the same core structures in place would all count as 'No'. A rebel group controlling some territory doesn't qualify either, unless the government has genuinely lost authority over most of the Iranian population. The deadline is December 31, 2026. Recent headlines point to active, direct military conflict between the US and Iran in June 2026 — including air strikes from both sides following an incident involving a downed helicopter. Iran has publicly framed its strikes as lawful self-defense. This is a significant escalation from earlier tensions, and analysts are already noting it complicates other regional issues like North Korea diplomacy. Whether this conflict intensifies, stabilizes, or leads to deeper internal pressure on the Iranian government is the key thing to watch going forward. The market prices this at about 13%, meaning most participants see regime collapse as unlikely but not impossible — and the current military conflict with the US makes that uncertainty real. The core difficulty is that authoritarian governments often survive major external military pressure, and even serious internal unrest (like the 2019 and 2022 protest waves in Iran) has not come close to toppling the system before. But open war introduces unpredictable dynamics. The main honest uncertainty is whether an already-escalating conflict could trigger internal fractures no one can fully anticipate.

The odds right now

• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?-1.0 pts (1w)13%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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