Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will Trump publicly say something personally insulting about a real person on a specific date? A Yes means he called someone weak, stupid, a failure, used a mocking nickname, or otherwise attacked them personally — in any tweet, speech, interview, or recorded statement. A No means he went through that entire day without making any such personal attack, even if he criticized policies or disagreed with people on the issues. It resolves Yes if credible news reporting confirms that Trump made at least one clearly personal insult toward any real individual on the target date, Eastern Time. The criteria are broad: any public statement counts, the person doesn't even need to be named as long as it's clear who he means. The one important edge case: criticizing someone's decisions or policies without attacking them personally does not count. A consensus of credible reporters, not a single outlet, makes the final call. The recent news is entirely about the death of Senator Lindsey Graham, a longtime Trump ally, on July 13. Trump ordered flags at half-mast and joined Netanyahu in mourning him. This is relevant context for the July 12 date specifically — a solemn news cycle sometimes changes the tone of public statements — but it doesn't tell us much about the broader pattern across July 24 or July 31. The market prices this very close to certain — 86–98% — and honestly, the main uncertainty is just whether an exceptional day occurs. Trump has an extremely long and well-documented public record of personal attacks, so the base rate is very high. The real question is whether something unusual — a quiet travel day, a focused diplomatic moment, a personal loss — produces a rare day with zero qualifying statements. That's a low-probability event, which is exactly what the odds reflect.

The odds right now

• July 13+1.5 pts (1w)94%
• July 24-5.0 pts (1w)87%
• July 15-6.0 pts (1w)86%
• July 31-6.5 pts (1w)86%
• July 29-7.0 pts (1w)85%
• July 17-7.5 pts (1w)84%
• July 18-7.5 pts (1w)84%
• July 19-7.0 pts (1w)84%
• July 26-7.5 pts (1w)83%
• July 16-9.5 pts (1w)83%
• July 22-8.5 pts (1w)83%
• July 27-9.0 pts (1w)83%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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