Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks one simple question: will Trump publicly announce he is leaving the presidency before the end of 2026? A 'Yes' means he makes a formal announcement of resignation — not that he's removed, impeached, or loses an election, but that he personally says he is stepping down. A 'No' means he stays in office (or is removed by other means) without ever making that announcement. The market is not asking whether he finishes his full term — only whether he quits. The market settles 'Yes' the moment Trump publicly announces a resignation — the announcement itself is enough, even if he never actually leaves office afterward. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern time. There is one important edge case: if Trump is removed from office by some other process (like impeachment and conviction) before he could resign, the market immediately resolves 'No' — because resigning becomes impossible. The source is official U.S. government records or a clear consensus among credible news outlets. The recent headlines provided — about Trump meeting Lebanon's president over a ceasefire and threatening tariffs on Canada — show him actively governing and engaged in foreign and trade policy. None of the headlines suggest any move toward resignation. The one resignation mentioned is a German politician, entirely unrelated to this market. There is no recent news that speaks directly to this question. The market prices this at around 5%, reflecting that presidential resignations are extremely rare in U.S. history — only one president has ever resigned. At that price, the main uncertainty is not 'will he or won't he' in any balanced sense; it is simply whether something genuinely unexpected occurs. Factors that could theoretically change things — a major health event, an overwhelming political crisis, or a dramatic shift in circumstances — are real but considered very unlikely by the market right now.

The odds right now

• Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?-0.5 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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