World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will this specific national team make it to the final four of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? The World Cup has 48 teams, and only 4 reach the semifinals — so this is asking whether a given team survives all the way through the group stage, the round of 32, the round of 16, and the quarterfinals. A Yes means they are one of those final four teams. A No means they were knocked out before that point. The market settles Yes the moment a team officially qualifies for the semifinals, and No the moment they are eliminated — or if they never make it that far. FIFA's official records are the source of truth, though credible news reports can also be used. One important edge case: if the tournament is cancelled or significantly postponed, or if the semifinal results are not confirmed by July 25, 2026, the market resolves No regardless of what had happened up to that point. None of the provided news headlines relate to the 2026 FIFA World Cup or these national teams. The tournament is the kind of event where relevant developments to watch for would include team injury reports, group stage results as they happen, and any news about key players' fitness or suspensions as the knockout rounds approach. Even the strongest international teams get knocked out early — that is the nature of a single-elimination tournament. Spain, France, and England are all priced between 35–45%, meaning the market sees each of them as more likely to fall short than to reach the semis. A single bad game, a red card, an injury to a key player, or a tough bracket draw can end any team's run. With a tournament this large and competitive, unpredictable results are genuinely common, which is why all three odds sit well below 50%.

The odds right now

• Spain45%
• France42%
• England-0.5 pts (1w)34%
• Argentina+0.5 pts (1w)32%
• Brazil-3.0 pts (1w)30%
• Portugal30%
• Germany-0.5 pts (1w)22%
• Netherlands21%
• Belgium+1.5 pts (1w)16%
• Norway-0.5 pts (1w)15%
• Colombia+1.0 pts (1w)14%
• Mexico11%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 13, 2026

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

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