World Cup: Silver Ball Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which player will be named the second-best player at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. FIFA awards a 'Golden Ball' to the tournament's best player and a 'Silver Ball' to the runner-up — this market is about that runner-up award. A Yes on Rodri means he finishes as the second-best player by FIFA's vote; a Yes on Mbappé or Bellingham means one of them does instead. The market settles on whichever player FIFA officially names as the Silver Ball winner after the 2026 World Cup final. The deadline is August 2, 2026 — if the tournament is cancelled or the award isn't announced by then, it resolves to 'Other.' There's one quirky edge case: if somehow two players tie, FIFA's own tiebreak rules apply first, and if that still doesn't produce a single name, the player whose last name comes first alphabetically wins the market. None of the provided news headlines are related to the 2026 FIFA World Cup or any of the three players listed. There's nothing here to go on from recent reporting. The kind of news that would matter includes World Cup match results, player injuries or standout performances during the tournament, and any early award speculation from journalists covering the event. The Silver Ball is genuinely hard to predict because it depends on how an entire tournament unfolds — not just one game. A player's team needs to go deep for him to accumulate enough visibility, and a single injury or bad match can end a player's tournament. Rodri is priced heavily as the favorite at 62%, so the market isn't treating this as a coin toss. The real uncertainty is whether an unexpected run or standout performance shifts the picture before the final whistle.

The odds right now

• Kylian Mbappé+33.3 pts (1w)54%
• Rodri+26.9 pts (1w)29%
• Lamine Yamal+11.7 pts (1w)13%
• Jude Bellingham+1.3 pts (1w)12%
• Lionel Messi-22.3 pts (1w)10%
• Erling Haaland-9.4 pts (1w)1%
• Harry Kane-4.2 pts (1w)1%
• Michael Olise-3.3 pts (1w)0%
• Vinícius Jr.-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Ousmane Dembélé-1.5 pts (1w)0%
• Cristiano Ronaldo0%
• Rayan Cherki-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the player who is awarded the Silver Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.