US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
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This market asks whether the US and Iran will sign a formal nuclear agreement before the end of July 2026. A 'Yes' means both countries publicly announce a deal — covering limits on Iran's nuclear research or weapons program — within that window. A 'No' means no such deal is announced in time, whether because talks collapsed, stalled, or never seriously started. The deal could be a two-country agreement or a broader multilateral one, like the 2015 JCPOA, as long as both the US and Iran are parties.
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US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
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US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
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