Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Prediction market trading suggests the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal shipping traffic levels by end of June 2026 is currently a minority outcome, with volume concentrated on the 'No' side. The market resolves 'Yes' if IMF Portwatch records a 7-day moving average of transit calls at or above 60 for any date through 30 June 2026. Resolution is drawn directly from IMF Portwatch data for the Strait of Hormuz.

Market structure

This is a binary market with a single resolution question. Trading is heavily concentrated on the 'No' outcome, with the 'Yes' outcome representing the minority position. Resolution requires a 7-day moving average of IMF Portwatch transit calls reaching or exceeding 60 at any point before the 30 June 2026 deadline. The market can resolve early if the threshold is met, or settles at the deadline if not. IMF Portwatch is the sole resolution source.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas transit the strait annually. Disruptions to shipping through the strait carry immediate implications for global energy markets and supply chains. Elevated regional tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, have periodically threatened or curtailed commercial shipping activity. IMF Portwatch, which aggregates automatic identification system (AIS) vessel tracking data, provides a standardised measure of transit calls across major global chokepoints, making it the authoritative benchmark for this market. The 60-call threshold represents the resolution criterion for what the market defines as a return to normal traffic volumes.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on whether transit calls recover to the specified threshold. Regional security conditions are the primary driver: any escalation involving Iran, Houthi activity in adjacent waters, or broader Gulf state tensions could suppress shipping confidence and reduce transits. Conversely, diplomatic de-escalation, ceasefire arrangements, or international naval presence providing convoy protection could encourage shipping companies to resume normal routing. Insurance and war-risk premium levels are a secondary factor: elevated premiums make alternative routes economically competitive, depressing Hormuz volumes even absent direct military threat. Cargo type composition matters as well, since the resolution criteria include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels, meaning recovery in any single category does not guarantee the aggregate threshold is met. Data publication lags from IMF Portwatch introduce a timing dimension: resolution can occur as soon as a qualifying 7-day average is published, but lags in AIS data aggregation could affect when that moment arrives. Seasonal shipping patterns and global demand conditions also modulate baseline call volumes.

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