Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stripe's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Prediction markets are tracking whether Stripe's private valuation will reach several thresholds by 31 December 2026, with the $170 billion floor outcome the heaviest-backed position and volume thinning sharply at higher thresholds such as $300 billion and above. The market structure spans eleven outcomes ranging from $125 billion to $500 billion, resolved using Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) pricing data. Resolution deadline is 1 January 2027, with a grace window extending to 4 January 2027 if NPM data is delayed.

Market structure

Eleven outcomes cover Stripe's valuation at various thresholds from $125 billion to $500 billion, resolved against NPM Price data published by Nasdaq Private Market. Volume is heavily concentrated at lower thresholds, with a steep drop-off above $225 billion and very thin interest at $400 billion or higher. Resolution is triggered the moment any NPM Price on any trading day within the period meets or exceeds a threshold. A fallback window runs to 11:59 PM ET on 4 January 2027 if NPM data publication is delayed.

Background

Stripe, the Irish-American payments infrastructure company co-founded by Patrick and John Collison, was last publicly valued at approximately $70 billion during a 2023 tender offer before secondary-market activity pushed implied valuations higher through 2024 and into 2025. The company has long been one of the most closely watched potential IPO candidates in fintech, having delayed a public listing through multiple market cycles. Stripe processed over $1 trillion in payment volume in 2023, underlining its scale relative to publicly listed peers. Secondary-market platforms such as Nasdaq Private Market have become the primary mechanism for price discovery in the absence of a public listing, making NPM data the natural resolution source for structured prediction markets on Stripe's valuation.

Key factors

The primary driver of resolution is whether secondary-market trading on NPM, or a public listing event, produces a price that implies a valuation at or above any given threshold. Key structural factors include: the trajectory of broader equity markets and fintech sector multiples, which influence how buyers and sellers price Stripe in private secondary trades; any progress toward or announcement of an IPO or direct listing, which would introduce exchange-traded price data into the resolution methodology; Stripe's reported revenue growth and profitability, which periodically emerge through secondary disclosures or press coverage and can shift secondary-market sentiment; and macroeconomic conditions affecting risk appetite for high-growth private technology companies. The resolution mechanics also create sensitivity to NPM's publishing continuity — if NPM ceases coverage, only pre-cessation data and any subsequent public market capitalisation are considered. Corporate actions such as an acquisition that eliminates Stripe as an independent entity would cap resolution at the last eligible pre-transaction valuation, not any deal premium.

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