#1 Searched Passings on Google 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: when someone dies in 2026 and the whole world searches their name on Google, whose death will people search for the most? Google publishes a yearly list called 'Year in Search' that includes a 'Passings' category, ranking the deaths that generated the biggest search spikes globally. This market asks who will sit at number one on that list. A Yes on any named person means they passed away in 2026 and their death was searched more than anyone else's worldwide. This settles based on one specific thing: the official Google 'Year in Search 2026' global Passings list, published on Google Trends, usually released in late 2026 or early 2027. Whatever name Google ranks first on that list wins. There is one important edge case: if Google does not publish the list at all by March 31, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other', meaning no named person wins regardless of what happened in the real world. The most relevant news from the provided headlines is a significant escalation between the United States and Iran in July 2026, including US military strikes on Iran after American personnel were killed. This context matters because Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, is currently the top-priced outcome at 35%. Heightened conflict involving Iran naturally draws more attention to Khamenei's status. No news about Chuck Norris or Sam Neill appears in the provided headlines. The core difficulty is that this market is, frankly, about predicting death and global attention at the same time, which makes it genuinely hard. A person has to both pass away and generate an enormous global search surge to win. The Iran conflict raises Khamenei's profile in the news, but conflict and death are different things. Any globally beloved or famous figure who passes unexpectedly in the second half of 2026 could dominate searches. The market prices Khamenei at 35%, reflecting real but far-from-certain conditions.

The odds right now

• Ali Khamenei35%
• Chuck Norris21%
• Victor Willis5%
• Sam Neill4%
• Jesse Jackson4%
• Alan Greenspan4%
• Bonnie Tyler4%
• Valentino Garavani4%
• Catherine O'Hara4%
• James Van Der Beek4%
• Eric Dane4%
• Clive Davis4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "Passings" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.