Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Abbas Araghchi will lose his job as Iran's top diplomat before a given deadline. Araghchi is Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, essentially the official face of Iran in talks with other countries. A 'Yes' means he leaves that role for any reason: fired, resigned, detained, or otherwise pushed out. A 'No' means he's still in the job when the deadline arrives. The market settles 'Yes' the moment Araghchi stops being foreign minister, even just an announcement counts, before it officially takes effect. That includes being fired, resigning, detained, or being blocked from doing the job in any lasting way. It settles 'No' if he's still in the role by the deadline. The deadline options are July 31, September 30, or December 31, 2026. Iran's government or credible news reporting can both serve as confirmation. One headline from July 19, 2026 notes that Trump dismissed Iran's withdrawal from a nuclear deal, that kind of diplomatic tension could affect Araghchi's position, since foreign ministers often face pressure or reshuffles when major negotiations shift. However, none of the provided headlines directly report anything about Araghchi's status or job security, so there's no specific recent development to point to regarding his role. Cabinet reshuffles in Iran are hard to predict from the outside because decisions rest with a small circle of leadership and aren't telegraphed publicly in advance. Iran's diplomatic environment is also volatile, nuclear talks, regional tensions, and relations with the U.S. can all shift quickly. The market currently puts the chance of him leaving by end of 2026 at around 28%, suggesting most participants expect him to stay, but the main uncertainty is simply whether an unexpected political shake-up occurs.

The odds right now

• December 31+9.5 pts (1w)25%
• September 30+3.0 pts (1w)13%
• July 31-0.5 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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