US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause): how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the US and Iran will stop exchanging strikes long enough for a full two weeks of quiet to pass. A 'Yes' means the US goes at least 14 straight days without launching a bomb, missile, or attack drone that actually hits Iranian soil — at any point before the deadline. A 'No' means the strikes keep coming, or resume too quickly, and that two-week gap never happens. It is less about a formal peace deal and more about a measurable pause in the shooting. The market settles 'Yes' the moment any clean 14-day stretch ends with no qualifying US strike hitting Iranian territory — meaning bombs, air-to-surface missiles, or attack drones that physically land on Iran. The clock resets every time a new qualifying strike occurs. Important edge cases: a missile that gets shot down before impact does not count, even if debris falls on Iran. Cyber attacks, naval gunfire, and threats that are never executed also don't count. The deadline to complete such a 14-day window is August 31, 2026. As of July 18, 2026, the US and Iran were actively exchanging strikes, with tensions centered on the Strait of Hormuz. This is directly relevant: every new qualifying US strike resets the 14-day clock, so active combat makes a ceasefire window harder to achieve. The news provided repeats the same headline multiple times without additional detail, so the specific scale or outcome of those strikes isn't clear from what was shared here. The core difficulty is that both sides were still actively striking each other as recently as mid-July 2026, and a single new US strike resets the entire 14-day clock. That makes the path to 'Yes' genuinely fragile — even a brief lull that gets interrupted counts as nothing. At the same time, the market prices the August 31 deadline at roughly 51%, reflecting real uncertainty about whether diplomacy, exhaustion, or strategic pressure could produce a pause before summer ends. The Strait of Hormuz dimension adds complexity, since economic pressure on global shipping could push both sides toward or away from de-escalation.

The odds right now

• August 3151%
• August 1432%
• July 3118%
• July 2414%
• July 181%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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