US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: will the US formally announce it is stopping its offensive military campaign against Iran, and if so, by when? There are three date options — July 24, July 31, or August 31, 2026 — and participants are betting on which deadline, if any, sees that announcement first. A "Yes" for a given date means the US publicly declares a general halt to its offensive strikes against Iran before that date's cutoff. A "No" means no such declaration comes by then. The market settles "Yes" the moment a senior US official — the President, Pentagon, State Department, or CENTCOM — makes a clear, official, public statement that the US is stopping or suspending its offensive military operations against Iran in general. It does not need to be called a ceasefire by name, and Iran does not need to agree. But it must be unambiguous and sweeping — a pause on one specific target or a single round of strikes does not count. Importantly, once a qualifying announcement is made, the market locks in as "Yes" even if fighting resumes afterward. The most recent news points to an active and escalating conflict, not a wind-down. As of July 18, 2026, Iran struck a US base in Jordan, killing two troops and leaving one missing. Iran's supreme leader is publicly threatening further retaliation, and Iran has suspended a diplomatic agreement with the US. Arab and Gulf nations have condemned Iranian strikes. None of this suggests an imminent US announcement of a halt — developments to watch would be any diplomatic back-channel signals or a sudden shift in official US statements. The core difficulty is that active military conflict is deeply unpredictable. The situation appears to be intensifying right now, which makes a near-term halt announcement look unlikely — yet conflicts can shift rapidly due to diplomacy, back-channel deals, or domestic political pressure. The criteria also set a high bar: only a broad, official, unambiguous US statement qualifies, so partial ceasefires or informal signals would not resolve this "Yes." The market currently prices the August 31 deadline at 53%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about how fast, or whether, this conflict winds down.

The odds right now

• August 3155%
• August 1534%
• July 3128%
• July 2414%
• July 215%
• July 192%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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