ECB Interest Rates: July 2026

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the European Central Bank will raise its key interest rate at its July 2026 meeting — and if so, by how much. The ECB's deposit facility rate is the main tool it uses to influence borrowing costs and inflation across the eurozone. A 'No Change' outcome means the ECB holds rates steady. A '25 bps Increase' means a modest hike — roughly like moving from 3.00% to 3.25%. A '50+ bps Increase' means a larger, more aggressive move. Right now, the market leans toward no change, with a meaningful chance of a hike. This market settles based on the official ECB announcement from its July 22–23, 2026 meeting. Whatever change the ECB announces to its deposit facility rate on that date determines the outcome. One important edge case: if the meeting is cancelled or delayed so long that no decision comes before the next scheduled meeting, the market automatically resolves as 'No Change' — even if no actual policy decision was made. Emergency rate changes outside that specific meeting also do not count. One relevant headline: the ECB reportedly hiked its key rates by 25 basis points on June 11, 2026, citing ongoing inflation pressures. If accurate, that's directly important context — it suggests the ECB was still in tightening mode recently, which shapes expectations for July. The other headlines (India, Turkey, El Niño) concern different central banks or unrelated topics and don't bear on this market. The main difficulty is that central bank decisions depend on data that hasn't arrived yet — inflation readings, wage growth, and economic output between now and late July. The ECB's June hike, if confirmed, raises the question of whether it will pause to assess the impact or keep moving. Markets currently price a 65% chance of no change, suggesting a genuine split in expectations. Between now and July 23, new inflation data or signals from ECB officials could shift the picture significantly.

The odds right now

• No change-3.0 pts (1w)80%
• 25 bps Increase+3.0 pts (1w)20%
• 50+ bps decrease-0.4 pts (1w)0%
• 50+ bps increase-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• 25 bps decrease-0.2 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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