Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the US Federal Reserve will leave interest rates completely unchanged at all three of its upcoming meetings in March, April, and June 2026. The Fed sets a key interest rate that affects borrowing costs across the whole economy — mortgages, car loans, business credit. A 'pause' means they leave that rate exactly where it is. A 'cut' means they lower it. Right now, the market is almost certain all three meetings end with no change at all. The market settles — meaning gets its final Yes or No — after the June 16–17, 2026 Fed meeting, the last of three being tracked. At each meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee announces whether rates stay the same, go up, or go down. If rates stay flat at all three meetings, it resolves 'Pause–Pause–Pause.' Even one cut at any meeting shifts it to a different outcome. One important edge case: emergency rate changes made outside these scheduled meetings do not count and will be ignored. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments that would matter most here are US inflation reports, jobs data, or any signals from Fed officials about whether they feel pressure to cut or hold rates in the months ahead. At 99%, the market is about as one-sided as prediction markets get — the main real uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected forces the Fed's hand. The honest question is not 'will they pause?' but 'what shock could change that?' A sudden spike in unemployment, a financial crisis, or a sharp drop in inflation could push the Fed toward a cut. Those events are hard to rule out completely over a six-month window, which is why the odds sit at 99% rather than 100%.

The odds right now

• Pause–Pause–Pause+1.1 pts (1w)99%
• Pause–Pause–Cut-0.9 pts (1w)1%
• Other-0.4 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 17, 2026

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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