Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Resolution Criteria

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Prediction market trading on the Federal Reserve's next three interest rate decisions — covering FOMC meetings in March, April, and June 2026 — is overwhelmingly concentrated on a single outcome: three consecutive pauses with no change to the federal funds rate. A small residual share is split between a pause-pause-cut sequence and the catch-all 'Other' category. Resolution is determined by official FOMC statements published after each meeting, with the final decision due 17 June 2026.

Market structure

Nine outcomes are available, covering combinations of pauses and cuts across three FOMC meetings (March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17, 2026). Volume is heavily concentrated on Pause–Pause–Pause, with Pause–Pause–Cut holding a sliver of support and Other capturing minimal residual interest. Resolution uses the upper bound of the target federal funds rate as published in official FOMC statements. Emergency inter-meeting cuts do not qualify. Any rate hike falls under 'Other'.

Background

The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target federal funds rate, the benchmark short-term interest rate that flows through to borrowing costs across the US and global economy. After a sustained hiking cycle that began in 2022 to combat elevated inflation, the Fed shifted toward cuts in late 2024 before signalling a more cautious stance entering 2025. Market participants now interpret the committee's posture as a holding pattern, weighing residual inflation concerns against signs of labour market softening. The three scheduled meetings in this market — March, April, and June 2026 — represent a roughly four-month window during which the committee's collective judgment on economic conditions will be formalised and publicly announced.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on whether the committee deviates from a pause sequence. Inflation data released between now and June 2026 — particularly the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred gauge — could shift the balance toward easing if readings fall convincingly toward the 2% target. Conversely, a resurgence in price pressures or wage growth could entrench the pause or, in an extreme scenario, produce a hike, which would resolve under 'Other'. Labour market conditions, GDP revisions, and financial stability concerns all feed into FOMC deliberations. External shocks — geopolitical events, commodity price spikes, or significant dollar movements — can alter the committee's assessment rapidly. The sequencing of meetings also matters: the March decision sets the baseline for April, and April's outcome frames the June decision, meaning a deviation at any stage alters the probability space for subsequent meetings. Chair commentary and the minutes from intervening meetings provide the primary forward guidance signals the market will reprice around.

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