Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Amsterdam? The three main options are 27°C, 28°C, or 29°C — roughly the difference between a warm summer day (27°C ≈ 81°F), a clearly hot day (28°C ≈ 82°F), and a notably hot day (29°C ≈ 84°F). The measurement comes from a specific weather station at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport, and only the single highest reading of that day counts. At the end of July 15, 2026, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the Amsterdam Schiphol Airport station and reads the highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever temperature bucket — 27°C, 28°C, 29°C, or another — contains that number wins. One important detail: if Wunderground later corrects the reading, that revision only counts if it happens before the first data point for July 16 is published. After that, the original number sticks. The two news items provided are about Malaysian politics and have no connection to Amsterdam weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date is any extended weather forecast for the Netherlands around mid-July 2026 — heat waves, Atlantic weather fronts, or unusual pressure systems would all be meaningful signals. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now. The three leading options — 27°C, 28°C, 29°C — are separated by just one degree each, which is well within normal daily forecast error. Amsterdam's July temperatures are also shaped by unpredictable factors like cloud cover, wind direction, and whether a European heat dome forms that week. The market is fairly spread across those three outcomes, reflecting real uncertainty rather than a clear frontrunner.

The odds right now

• 27°C44%
• 28°C40%
• 29°C13%
• 26°C5%
• 30°C2%
• 25°C1%
• 31°C0%
• 24°C or below0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.