Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, how hot will Chengdu get at its main airport weather station? Specifically, it asks you to pick the peak temperature for that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. The three choices are 38°C, 39°C, or 40°C, which in everyday terms means roughly 100°F, 102°F, or 104°F. The market is not asking about average temperature or overnight lows, just the single hottest reading of the entire day. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on July 20, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The number used is a whole-degree Celsius figure, so a reading of, say, 38.7°C would count as 38°C, not 39°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 21 appears on that site, after which any later corrections to the July 20 data are ignored. None of the provided news headlines relate to Chengdu's weather or any climate event affecting the region. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of update that would matter is a forecast or heat advisory specifically for Chengdu around July 20, or news about an unusual weather pattern, such as a heat dome, affecting Sichuan province. July 20 falls deep in Chengdu's hot, humid summer, and the market prices 38°C and 39°C as roughly equally likely, together covering about three-quarters of the probability. The real difficulty is that daily peak temperatures in a city like Chengdu can shift several degrees based on cloud cover, rainfall, and regional air patterns that are impossible to predict more than a few days out. The difference between a 38°C and a 39°C day can come down to whether a brief afternoon shower arrives or not.

The odds right now

• 38°C100%
• 34°C or below0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 41°C0%
• 42°C0%
• 43°C0%
• 44°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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