Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the single highest temperature of the day be in Hong Kong on July 20, 2026? The three options are 29°C, 30°C, or 31°C, each representing a one-degree range. Think of it as a weather forecast question with a specific answer: whichever bracket the peak afternoon heat falls into wins. July is deep summer in Hong Kong, so temperatures in this range are typical, but the exact number on any one day is genuinely hard to pin down. The market settles based on the official 'Absolute Daily Max' temperature published by the Hong Kong Observatory for July 20, 2026, that is the highest temperature recorded at their main station on that specific day. The reading is in Celsius to one decimal place (for example, 30.4°C would count as the 30°C option). One important detail: only the first published figure counts. If the Observatory later corrects the number, that revision is ignored for this market. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. The headlines cover Malaysian politics, flooding in India, and Hong Kong's property sector, none of which tells us anything about next year's weather. The kind of development that would actually matter here would be a long-range meteorological forecast for Hong Kong in late July 2026, or historical temperature data for that specific date in past years. Weather is genuinely hard to predict even a week out, let alone a year in advance. July 20 could be a calm, slightly cooler day or a hot, humid one, the difference between 29°C and 31°C at peak heat is often determined by cloud cover, wind direction, or a passing weather system that nobody can foresee this far ahead. The market currently leans toward 30°C at 46%, reflecting historical averages for that time of year, but the remaining 54% spread across other outcomes shows real uncertainty remains.

The odds right now

• 30°C44%
• 31°C27%
• 29°C19%
• 32°C11%
• 33°C3%
• 34°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%
• 35°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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