Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: on July 21, 2026, what will the single hottest temperature of the day be in Chengdu, measured in whole degrees Celsius? You are not guessing a range of weather or an average. You are picking one number, the peak temperature recorded that day at Chengdu's main airport weather station. A win for '40°C' means the thermometer hit 40 degrees at some point that day, not 39, not 41. The market settles using the official daily high temperature logged at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on July 21, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to a whole number, so 39.7°C would count as 39°C, not 40°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that site. Any corrections the station makes before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be seasonal climate outlooks for Sichuan province in summer 2026, or reports of unusual heat patterns in central China as July approaches. Summer temperatures in Chengdu genuinely cluster around this range: the city regularly sees highs between 35°C and 40°C in July, which is exactly why the market is split across three close options. A single degree separates the top two choices, so one passing cloud or one slightly stronger heat dome could tip the result. Weather forecasts this far out carry real error. The market spreads its odds fairly evenly across 38, 39, and 40, reflecting that no one outcome is strongly favored right now.

The odds right now

• 39°C39%
• 40°C39%
• 38°C13%
• 41°C12%
• 37°C2%
• 42°C2%
• 36°C1%
• 35°C0%
• 34°C or below0%
• 43°C0%
• 44°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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