Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, what will the single hottest temperature of the day be in Mexico City? There are three options to pick from: 26°C, 27°C, or 28°C, and the market currently favors 27°C as the most likely outcome. Think of it as guessing whether Mexico City's afternoon peak hits a cool 26°C, a typical 27°C, or a warmer 28°C on that specific day. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded on July 20, 2026, at the Benito Juárez International Airport weather station, using data from Weather Underground. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. One key detail: the final reading is locked in once the first data point from July 21 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. None of the provided news headlines are related to Mexico City weather or any climate event that would affect this market. No relevant recent news is available here. The kind of development worth watching would be a regional heat advisory, an unusual weather pattern over central Mexico, or an updated forecast for Mexico City specifically around July 20. July in Mexico City sits in the rainy season, which creates real day-to-day variability. A cloudy, rainy afternoon can cap the high at 26°C, while a sunny morning before clouds roll in can push it to 28°C or beyond. The three options are separated by just one degree each, so even a small shift in conditions changes the outcome. The market spreads its probability across all three options, which honestly reflects how tight and hard to call single-day temperature readings are.

The odds right now

• 26°C42%
• 27°C42%
• 25°C10%
• 28°C8%
• 29°C1%
• 24°C1%
• 23°C1%
• 30°C or higher1%
• 21°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 20°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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