Iran leadership change by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Mojtaba Khamenei — who is currently Iran's Supreme Leader — will lose that position before a given date. Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of the longtime previous Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and apparently took power after his father. A 'Yes' means he is no longer running Iran: removed, detained, forced out, or resigned. A 'No' means he is still in charge on the deadline date. The three versions of this market just differ on the deadline: September 30, December 31 (2026), or June 30, 2027. The market settles 'Yes' the moment credible news sources agree that Mojtaba Khamenei has stopped being Iran's de facto leader — meaning he was removed, detained, resigned, or otherwise lost control. Even an announced resignation counts, even if the handover hasn't officially happened yet. If he is still in power on the deadline date, it settles 'No'. There is no single official body that decides this — it is based on a consensus of credible reporting, so widespread, confirmed news coverage would be required. Very recent headlines describe a serious military escalation between the US and Iran in July 2026 — including direct strikes exchanged, Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, and public threats between Trump and Iran's leadership. This is directly relevant: military conflict and extreme pressure on a government can sometimes destabilize leadership, though they can also cause leaders to consolidate power. The situation appears active and fast-moving, which makes it genuinely significant context for this question. The core difficulty is that leadership change in a closed, authoritarian system is very hard to see coming — and very hard to predict even when tensions are high. Military conflict can topple governments, but it can also entrench them. Mojtaba Khamenei is a relatively new leader, and little is publicly known about the internal stability of his grip on power. The market prices the longest window (to June 2027) at only 28%, reflecting that even with serious escalation, most observers still consider removal unlikely — but the situation is clearly volatile.

The odds right now

• June 30, 2027+2.0 pts (1w)28%
• December 31+4.0 pts (1w)20%
• September 30+4.5 pts (1w)13%
• July 31+1.7 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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