Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Israel and Iran will avoid attacking each other's actual territory all the way through August 31, 2026. A Yes means neither side launches a significant strike that lands on the other's soil during that period — the ceasefire holds. A No means one of them fires missiles, bombs, or attack drones that actually hit the other country's territory. It is specifically about direct Israel-Iran strikes, not the broader regional conflict involving other parties. The market settles Yes if no qualifying strike lands on Israeli or Iranian territory before 11:59 PM Iran time on August 31, 2026. A qualifying strike means an airstrike or surface-to-surface missile that actually hits the other country's land — intercepted missiles don't count, even if debris falls. Cyber attacks, ground incursions, and small drones also don't count. Critically, the US-Iran conflict is separate: only direct Israel-Iran strikes matter here. If reports conflict, resolvers wait up to three days for clarity before deciding. The main recent news involves US-Iran military exchanges near the Strait of Hormuz on July 18, 2026 — not direct Israel-Iran strikes. That distinction matters a lot here: this market only resolves No if Israel and Iran hit each other directly. However, a wider US-Iran confrontation could raise regional tensions and affect the stability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire, which is why the odds have shifted notably over just a few days — from 98% down to 79% for the July 22 date. The odds have dropped sharply in just days — from 98% to 79% — which suggests the market sees rising risk, likely driven by the US-Iran fighting near Hormuz spilling over or reshaping incentives for Israel and Iran. The core difficulty is that this ceasefire exists inside a volatile, multi-party conflict: actions by the US, Hezbollah, or others could trigger a direct Israel-Iran exchange even without either side initially intending one. Over a timeline stretching to August 2026, a lot can change — that length of time is itself a major source of uncertainty.

The odds right now

• July 1898%
• July 2090%
• July 2280%
• July 2571%
• July 3156%
• August 1546%
• August 3141%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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