Khamenei # posts July 14 - July 21, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei post on X (formerly Twitter) during a specific one-week window? The brackets represent ranges, so 'Yes' on '5-9' means he posts somewhere between 5 and 9 times total, 'Yes' on '10-14' means 10 to 14 posts, and so on. It's not about what he says, just how often he posts. A tracking tool at xtracker.polymarket.com will count every main-feed post, repost, and quote post from Khamenei's account (@khamenei_ir) between July 14 and July 21, 2026 at noon ET. Replies don't count unless they appear on his main feed. One important edge case: even deleted posts count, as long as the tracker captured them within roughly five minutes of posting. The bracket whose range matches the final count wins. The news right now is significant context: U.S. military strikes on Iran were reported on July 19, 2026, and Khamenei publicly called Trump's signature 'worthless' after accusing the U.S. of breaking an agreement. Active military conflict and direct public statements from Khamenei suggest his account may be more active than usual during this window, but how that translates into a specific post count is genuinely unclear. The core difficulty is that one person's posting habits during an active geopolitical crisis are hard to model. Khamenei might post rapidly to respond to U.S. strikes, or his team might be cautious and deliberate. The market currently leans toward the 5-9 range (58%), with 10-14 as a meaningful second possibility (38%). The overlap between those two brackets is the real question, and during a fast-moving military confrontation, posting volume could shift dramatically day to day.

The odds right now

• 5-9+49.0 pts (1w)70%
• 10-14+34.4 pts (1w)50%
• 15-19-6.5 pts (1w)5%
• 25-29+0.4 pts (1w)4%
• 30-34-1.1 pts (1w)4%
• 20-24-27.8 pts (1w)4%
• 35-39-11.2 pts (1w)1%
• 40-44-37.4 pts (1w)1%
• 45-49-33.6 pts (1w)0%
• 50-54-3.5 pts (1w)0%
• 55-59-0.7 pts (1w)0%
• 60+-7.0 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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