Next Claude Opus released by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking: when will Anthropic release the next version of its most powerful AI model, Claude Opus, to the general public? Anthropic names its models in tiers — Opus is the top tier, Sonnet is the middle, and Haiku is the lightest. A 'Yes' means a new Opus model becomes publicly available before a given deadline. A 'No' means it hasn't launched yet by that date. There are three separate deadlines being tracked: August 31, October 31, and December 31, 2026. To settle as Yes, Anthropic must publicly release a model explicitly named Opus — something like Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 4.9 — and make it accessible to anyone, not just selected testers. An open beta or open waitlist counts, but a private or invite-only beta does not. The name must genuinely be Opus; a different name like Sonnet or a new name like Fable or Mythos would not count, even if it's a powerful model. Anthropic's own official announcements and website are the main source for confirming the release. There is no relevant recent news provided for this market. The one headline listed is about a real estate company and has nothing to do with Anthropic or AI releases. To track this market, the development worth watching for is any official announcement from Anthropic about an upcoming or newly launched Opus model — either through their website, blog, or public communications. The market is priced very high across all three dates — 94% to 99% — which tells you participants strongly expect a new Opus model before the end of 2026. The real uncertainty here is not whether it happens, but whether something unexpected delays it: a strategic pivot, Anthropic choosing a different naming scheme, or a major release being classified as private access only. The criteria are strict on the name and public availability, so an edge case around branding or access type is the most realistic path to a surprise No.

The odds right now

• October 31+5.3 pts (1w)99%
• December 31+23.4 pts (1w)98%
• August 31+27.4 pts (1w)93%
• July 3192%
• July 2486%
• July 1741%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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