Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut?

What you need to know

This market is asking how well the next Claude Opus AI model scores on a public AI leaderboard when it first shows up there. Arena.ai runs a leaderboard where people vote on which AI gives better answers — models accumulate a score based on those votes. The three versions of this market set different score thresholds: 1470, 1480, or 1490. Think of these like grades on a scale — the current top models score somewhere in this range, and a higher score means the model is ranked more impressively by real users. The day after a new Claude Opus model appears on the Arena.ai text leaderboard for the first time, the market checks its score at noon Eastern Time. If the score shown in the leaderboard's 'Score' column meets or exceeds the threshold (1470, 1480, or 1490 depending on which market you're looking at), it resolves Yes — otherwise No. Only models with 'Opus' in their name count. If no Opus model appears on the leaderboard at all before December 31, 2026, all three markets resolve No. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market — they cover a religious festival, small business tips, a stock price, and politics. There's no relevant recent news to point to here. What would matter to watch for is Anthropic announcing or releasing a new Claude Opus model, and then that model being added to the Arena.ai leaderboard. Two separate things have to go right for a Yes: Anthropic must release a new Opus model and get it onto the leaderboard before the deadline, and then the model must score high enough. The market prices the lowest threshold (1470) at 86%, suggesting participants think a strong debut is fairly plausible — but the drop to 44% at 1490 shows real disagreement about just how high the score will land. Leaderboard scores depend on unpredictable public voting, and it's genuinely unclear how the next Opus will perform relative to competing models that will also be improving.

The odds right now

• 1470+85%
• 1480+69%
• 1490+45%
• 1500+32%
• 1510+13%
• 1520+4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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