Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, through which a large share of the world's oil and cargo passes — returns to a normal, healthy level by September 30, 2026. The threshold for 'normal' is a 7-day average of at least 60 ships passing through per day. Think of it like asking: does the waterway go from disrupted and thinly used back to its usual busy rhythm, with around 60 or more arrivals on a typical day? The market settles as Yes the moment IMF Portwatch — a shipping-data tool run by the International Monetary Fund — records a 7-day rolling average of 60 or more ship arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz on any single day before or on September 30, 2026. It resolves No if that threshold is never reached by then. One important detail: the 60-ship average only needs to happen once, on any day, for Yes to trigger. The data source is specific — only IMF Portwatch counts, not other shipping trackers. The news from July 12, 2026 paints a tense picture: the US has struck Iran, Iran has reportedly attacked targets near the Strait on Qeshm island, and regional neighbors are condemning the escalation. These are exactly the kinds of events that would suppress shipping traffic — vessels tend to avoid or delay transit when military activity is nearby. The strait appears to be in an active conflict zone right now, which is directly relevant to whether traffic can recover to normal levels by September. The core difficulty is that this depends almost entirely on geopolitics — specifically, how the US-Iran conflict evolves — which is genuinely unpredictable. A ceasefire or diplomatic deal could reopen traffic quickly; a prolonged standoff or escalation could keep ships away for months. The market currently prices Yes at just 32%, reflecting that the situation looks difficult right now, but the deadline is still September 30, 2026, leaving meaningful time for things to shift. The main uncertainty is simply how fast, or whether, the underlying conflict cools down.

The odds right now

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?-15.0 pts (1w)32%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 30, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. The exchange's settlement fee applies everywhere and is shown before you confirm any trade. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.