University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June 2026

What you need to know

This market is asking: how confident are American consumers feeling about the economy in June 2026? The University of Michigan runs a monthly survey asking regular people about their finances and economic outlook, then turns the answers into a single number — the Consumer Sentiment Index. Right now the market is clustered around scores in the low-to-mid 40s, which historically would be quite low, roughly where sentiment sat during periods of serious economic worry. A higher score means people feel better; a lower score means more pessimism. The market settles on whichever score bracket the University of Michigan officially publishes on June 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM Eastern time — that is the final, confirmed reading, not the earlier preliminary estimate released a few weeks prior. The score is reported to one decimal place (like 44.8), and it must fall inside one of the predefined ranges for that bracket to win. If the release is delayed, the market stays open until the next scheduled report; if data never arrives, it uses the most recent available month instead. None of the news headlines provided are relevant to U.S. consumer sentiment or the American economy. They cover topics in China, Sri Lanka, India, and the UK. There is no recent news here to draw on. What would actually matter to watch: any U.S. jobs reports, inflation data, major policy announcements, or the University of Michigan's own preliminary June reading, which typically comes out a few weeks before the final number. Consumer sentiment is genuinely hard to pin down because it reflects mood, not just facts — and mood can shift quickly. The market currently spreads its weight across several low brackets, suggesting real disagreement about where the number lands, not just whether it's high or low. A surprise jobs report, a shift in trade policy, or even a change in news tone can move sentiment in weeks. The preliminary reading and the final reading sometimes differ too, adding another small layer of unpredictability right at the end.

The odds right now

• 43.0–45.9+5.0 pts (1w)25%
• 46.0–48.9-1.0 pts (1w)23%
• 40.0–42.9-1.3 pts (1w)19%
• 49.0–51.9+0.9 pts (1w)14%
• <40.0-1.7 pts (1w)9%
• 52.0–54.9+2.3 pts (1w)4%
• ≥55.0+0.2 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 26, 2026

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for June 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for June 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on June 26, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.