Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election and become the city's next mayor. A Yes for any named candidate means that person wins the election and takes office. The three candidates currently listed, Kareem Allam, Ken Sim, and Pete Fry, are the main names the market is tracking, but the remaining 30% of probability is spread across other possible candidates who could still enter the race. The market settles on whichever candidate officially wins the October 17, 2026 Vancouver mayoral election. The result will be confirmed using credible news reporting, and Vancouver's own official results if anything is unclear. One important edge case: if someone is appointed as a temporary or interim mayor before the election, that does not count, only the elected winner matters. If no result is known by June 30, 2027, the market closes as 'Other' regardless of what is happening. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Vancouver mayoral election. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be: new candidates officially announcing their campaigns, major policy controversies in Vancouver, or shifts in local polling data as the October 2026 vote approaches. The election is still roughly a year away, which is a long time in local politics, a lot can change. The current odds are fairly spread out, with no single candidate above 32%, meaning the market genuinely sees this as an open race. New candidates could still enter and shift things significantly. Local issues like housing, public safety, and city finances often drive Vancouver elections, and how those conversations evolve between now and October 2026 will matter enormously to the final outcome.

The odds right now

• Pete Fry+19.5 pts (1w)29%
• Ken Sim28%
• Kareem Allam-40.0 pts (1w)12%
• William Azaroff-0.4 pts (1w)4%
• John Coupar+0.4 pts (1w)2%
• Kirk LaPointe-0.3 pts (1w)2%
• Colleen Hardwick+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Fred Harding+0.7 pts (1w)1%
• Rebecca Bligh+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Sean Orr+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Amanda Burrows-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Tim Louis0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 17, 2026

The 2026 Vancouver mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Vancouver as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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