Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump will personally insult any of three specific people — Jimmy Kimmel, Alex Jones, or Megyn Kelly — in a public statement before June 30, 2026. A 'Yes' means he says something clearly derogatory about one of them as a person: a put-down, a mocking nickname, calling them stupid or a failure, that kind of thing. A 'No' means he either doesn't mention them at all, or only disagrees with their work or views without attacking them personally. Each person resolves Yes independently if credible news outlets report that Trump made a clearly personal or professional insult — spoken, written, or recorded — directed at them before June 30, 2026 Eastern Time. The insult has to be about the person, not just a policy they support. There's a specific line drawn: saying someone 'isn't being smart about this policy' wouldn't count, but saying someone 'isn't smart' as a personal dig would. A consensus of credible reporting decides, so a single ambiguous quote may not be enough. None of the recent headlines provided are directly relevant to this market. The Kennedy Center name-removal story shows ongoing legal friction around Trump, but it doesn't involve Kimmel, Jones, or Kelly specifically. There's no recent news here pointing toward or away from Trump targeting any of the three. The kind of development that would matter is Trump posting on Truth Social or making public remarks that directly name or clearly reference one of them. Trump's public commentary is frequent and wide-ranging, which makes it genuinely hard to predict who, if anyone, he targets by a specific date. All three people have complicated histories with him — Jones is a political ally, Kimmel a longtime critic, and Kelly has had both friction and warmer periods with him. Relationships shift quickly. The criteria also require a clearly personal insult, not just a disagreement, so borderline comments could be debated at resolution. The market prices all three between 36–42%, signaling real uncertainty across the board.

The odds right now

• Jimmy Kimmel-11.0 pts (1w)43%
• Megyn Kelly-7.5 pts (1w)43%
• Nicolás Maduro-10.5 pts (1w)37%
• Norah O'Donnell-31.5 pts (1w)35%
• Alex Jones-5.5 pts (1w)35%
• Zohran Mamdani-12.0 pts (1w)31%
• Keir Starmer-13.5 pts (1w)23%
• Emmanuel Macron-21.5 pts (1w)21%
• Freidrich Merz-1.5 pts (1w)17%
• Benjamin Netanyahu-5.5 pts (1w)14%
• Elon Musk+0.8 pts (1w)10%
• Pope Leo XIV-6.5 pts (1w)8%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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