Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Resolution Criteria

On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.

The prediction market tracking when — or whether — the United States will officially announce the lifting of its Strait of Hormuz blockade shows volume heavily concentrated on a 'No' outcome by 30 June 2026, with a smaller cluster of trading around a late-May resolution date. The blockade was announced by President Trump on 12 April 2026 amid stalled US-Iran nuclear talks. The market resolves on receipt of an official, named public announcement from the US government, White House, or Trump's personal social media accounts.

Market structure

The market spans 13 outcome dates plus an implicit 'No by deadline' bucket, with volume broadly concentrated on two outcomes: a June 30 'No' resolution and a late-May lifting date. The remaining dated outcomes draw minimal volume. Resolution requires an explicit, official, named announcement that the blockade has been lifted or will be lifted on a specified date. Unofficial leaks, unnamed sources, and circumstantial evidence of resumed shipping do not qualify. The deadline is 30 June 2026.

Background

President Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on 12 April 2026, following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme. The strait is the world's most critical oil chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids transit daily. The blockade marked a significant escalation in US-Iran tensions and triggered immediate reactions across global energy markets, regional governments, and international shipping lanes. The announcement came after talks described in NBC News coverage as having failed to produce a deal, with both sides publicly attributing blame for the impasse. The blockade's legal basis, enforcement posture, and duration have all been subjects of international debate since its announcement.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on when or whether a qualifying announcement emerges. First, the trajectory of US-Iran diplomatic engagement: any resumption of formal talks, back-channel negotiations brokered by third parties such as Oman or the UAE, or a new framework agreement could trigger or precede a lifting announcement. Second, the domestic and international economic pressure created by a blockade of a major global oil transit route — energy price rises, shipping insurance costs, and allied government reactions — may create political incentive to announce a defined end date. Third, the resolution criteria are strict: only named, official statements qualify, meaning even a de facto cessation of enforcement would not resolve the market unless accompanied by explicit language. Fourth, the broader US-Iran nuclear negotiation timeline matters — if a deal is signed, a blockade lift announcement may follow as a diplomatic gesture, but the sequencing is uncertain. Fifth, congressional or legal challenges to the blockade's authority could influence the administration's public posture.

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