Who will Trump speak to in June?

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will Donald Trump have any verbal conversation — a phone call, video call, or in-person meeting — with each of these three world leaders during June 2026? Each leader (France's Macron, Britain's Starmer, Germany's Merz) is a separate Yes or No question. A 'Yes' just means the two men spoke out loud at some point during the month, in any setting. A 'No' means the entire month passed without any confirmed verbal contact. Each market settles 'Yes' the moment credible news outlets confirm a verbal exchange happened before June 30 at 11:59 PM ET. Phone, video call, or face-to-face all count — but text messages or written statements do not. There is one important edge case: if a conversation happens very late in June but news confirming it doesn't solidify within three calendar days after the deadline, it still resolves 'No', even if it later turns out the call did happen. The provided news doesn't directly mention any of these three leaders. The most relevant headline is that Trump reportedly cancelled planned Iran strikes and touted an imminent deal on June 12 — active diplomacy of that scale typically involves intensive calls with European allies like France, the UK, and Germany, who all have stakes in Iran nuclear policy. That context makes contact plausible, but no specific calls with Macron, Starmer, or Merz are confirmed in the given headlines. These three markets are priced at 94–98%, meaning the market treats a June conversation as nearly certain for each leader — and historically, the leaders of France, the UK, and Germany speak with sitting U.S. presidents very frequently. The real uncertainty here isn't whether contact is likely; it's whether something unexpected prevents it, like a diplomatic rupture, an illness, or a chaotic month where no confirmed call gets reported in time to meet the three-day confirmation rule. At these odds, the main risk is the unlikely, not the routine.

The odds right now

• Emmanuel Macron-0.9 pts (1w)98%
• Keir Starmer+2.0 pts (1w)94%
• Friedrich Merz-1.0 pts (1w)94%
• Mark Carney+1.0 pts (1w)92%
• Ursula von der Leyen-3.5 pts (1w)88%
• Lula da Silva+4.5 pts (1w)78%
• Mohammed bin Salman+4.5 pts (1w)77%
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy-0.5 pts (1w)74%
• Mark Rutte-0.5 pts (1w)70%
• Ahmed al-Sharaa+1.5 pts (1w)58%
• Elon Musk+22.5 pts (1w)47%
• Vladimir Putin-12.5 pts (1w)38%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between June 1 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. If the date/time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.