Will any country leave NATO by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether any of NATO's 32 member countries will formally start the process of leaving the alliance before the end of 2026. A 'Yes' means at least one country files official paperwork to quit NATO — a historic, never-before-seen event. A 'No' means all 32 members stay in, even if relations are tense or countries reduce their military cooperation. Pulling back from NATO's military structure, like France did in the 1960s, would not count — only a formal written notice to leave. The market settles 'Yes' if any NATO member submits a formal withdrawal notice under Article 13 of the NATO founding treaty — essentially a legal letter to the alliance saying 'we are leaving' — by December 31, 2026. An important edge case: a country stepping back from NATO's shared military command does not count. The bar is high — it must be official government action, confirmed by NATO or widely reported by credible news outlets. No such notice has ever been submitted in NATO's 75-year history. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. The headlines cover the death of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham and unrelated business topics. There is no reporting on any country moving toward a NATO withdrawal. The kind of development that would actually matter here would be an official government announcement of intent to leave the alliance. The market prices this at just 4%, reflecting that no country has ever formally left NATO, and there is no known government currently pursuing withdrawal. The genuine uncertainty is not 'which side wins a close debate' — it is simply whether a rare, dramatic event happens at all. Factors that could shift this include major political upheaval in a member state or a serious breakdown in U.S.-Europe relations, but none of those automatically trigger a formal exit. The 4% reflects a small but real 'never say never' margin.

The odds right now

• December 31, 2026-0.3 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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