Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will publicly announce he is leaving the Court before a specific deadline. A 'Yes' means Alito officially says he's stepping down — the announcement itself is what counts, not the day he actually leaves. A 'No' means he stays silent on retirement and remains on the Court through that date. There are three separate deadline versions of this question: September 30, December 31 (both 2026), and June 30, 2027. The market settles as 'Yes' the moment Alito — or an official spokesperson acting on his behalf — makes a public announcement that he will retire, at any point in time, as long as that announcement comes before the deadline at 11:59 PM ET. One important detail: he doesn't have to have already left the Court, just said he will. If no such announcement happens before the deadline, it resolves 'No'. The only accepted source is an official statement from Alito or his representatives. None of the provided news headlines relate to Samuel Alito or the Supreme Court. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter: any public statement from Alito about his future on the Court, or credible reporting from major outlets citing sources close to him about retirement plans. Supreme Court justices decide entirely on their own when — and whether — to retire, and they rarely signal it in advance. Alito has given no public indication either way. The market prices a June 2027 announcement at roughly 49%, meaning participants are genuinely split. The main unknowns are his personal timeline, his health, and the political environment — justices sometimes time retirements to align with a favorable presidency. Because the decision is one person's private choice, outside observers have very little reliable information to go on.

The odds right now

• June 30, 2027-5.0 pts (1w)49%
• December 31-7.0 pts (1w)20%
• September 30+5.0 pts (1w)17%
• July 15-0.4 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

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