Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei will ever speak directly — in person, by phone, or by video call. Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and is widely seen as a powerful figure behind the scenes in Iran, possibly being groomed to eventually lead the country. A Yes means the two men actually had a real-time conversation. A No means no such direct contact happened before the deadline. The market settles Yes only if Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei have a direct, real-time conversation — in person, by phone, or on a video call — before December 31, 2026. A written letter or message passed through intermediaries would not count. There is no single official body deciding this; instead, it requires a consensus of credible news organizations reporting that the conversation took place. If it happens but is kept entirely secret with no credible reporting, that likely means No. The news from July 2026 paints a deeply hostile picture: the US and Iran are described as lurching toward all-out war, with renewed strikes escalating tensions significantly. One report says Mojtaba Khamenei will not appear publicly until the war ends, and another suggests he might reach out to Putin before anyone in the West. These headlines point strongly away from any direct Trump-Khamenei contact happening soon — if anything, the current environment makes dialogue harder, not easier. The market prices this at just 7%, reflecting how extraordinarily unlikely direct contact between these two figures looks right now. The main honest uncertainty is not 'will they or won't they' in a balanced sense — it's simply whether something completely unexpected happens, like a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or back-channel deal that brings Mojtaba Khamenei into direct contact with Trump. History occasionally produces those surprises. But given the current state of US-Iran relations, the bar for Yes is very high.

The odds right now

• December 31+2.6 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mojtaba Khamenei talks with Donald Trump by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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