Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction markets are tracking whether a US-Iran ceasefire, understood to have come into effect following a period of military tension, will hold through a series of specific dates. Trading is heavily concentrated on near-term dates, with the heaviest backing for the ceasefire surviving through late May 2025, while confidence thins considerably for dates extending into summer and year-end. The market has no fixed end date and resolves 'No' only if US forces conduct a confirmed kinetic strike on Iranian soil.

Market structure

The market offers fifteen distinct date-based outcomes, each resolving independently as 'Yes' or 'No'. Confidence is heavily concentrated on the nearest dates and declines progressively through the calendar. Resolution requires either an official US government confirmation or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying kinetic military action struck Iranian ground territory. A one-calendar-day confirmation window applies following each listed date. Cyberattacks, naval actions outside Iranian territory, and ground operations are explicitly excluded.

Background

The market reflects the aftermath of a period of acute US-Iran military tension that prompted diplomatic steps toward a ceasefire arrangement. Iran and the United States have a long history of indirect and proxy confrontation, but direct US kinetic action against Iranian territory has remained rare and politically significant. The June 2019 downing of a US drone and the January 2020 killing of Qasem Soleimani are among the most recent episodes in which direct escalation was either narrowly avoided or briefly crossed. Any ceasefire framework would represent an unusual and fragile stabilisation given the broader context of sanctions, nuclear negotiations, and regional proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on whether the ceasefire holds across each date threshold. The status of any underlying diplomatic framework — whether formal or tacit — determines how each party interprets provocation thresholds. Developments in regional theatres, including actions by Iranian-backed forces in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, or Lebanon, could create pressure on US decision-makers to respond in ways that risk crossing into qualifying kinetic action on Iranian soil. Domestic political conditions in both Washington and Tehran influence each government's tolerance for escalation or de-escalation. The precise legal and operational definition of qualifying action matters: the market excludes cyberattacks, naval shelling outside Iranian territory, and ground operations, meaning many intermediate escalatory steps would not trigger resolution. The one-day confirmation window means that ambiguous or initially unconfirmed incidents near a deadline could temporarily extend uncertainty before resolution is determined.

FAQ