← Markets
Next Claude Opus released on...?

Next Claude Opus released on...?

Resolves Jul 31, 2026·$323 24h vol·tech
$323 total volume

July 21

37%-7.5%
OutcomeYesNo
July 21
July 29
July 30
July 23
July 16
July 20
July 22
July 28
July 15 or prior
July 27

Order Book

July 21

PriceSharesTotal
77.0¢25$19
76.0¢75$57
75.0¢95$71
74.0¢17$13
73.0¢17$12
72.0¢87$63
69.0¢26$18
68.0¢30$20
50.0¢last trade
62.0¢ spread
6.0¢821$49
5.0¢500$25
2.0¢308$6
1.0¢205$2
$82 bids$273 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

July 21

37%