Reya FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Reya's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Reya (https://x.com/reya_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Prediction markets place the heaviest weight on Reya's token Fully Diluted Valuation exceeding $70M one day after launch, with that threshold drawing the most concentrated backing among all outcomes. The $150M and $200M thresholds attract the next largest share of volume, forming a cluster of mid-range expectations. Resolution is set for 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Reya's token launch, using the most liquid price source available, with a hard deadline of 31 December 2026.

Market structure

The market spans six FDV thresholds: $70M, $150M, $200M, $300M, $400M, and $1B. Volume is heavily concentrated at the lower end, with the $70M threshold drawing the broadest backing. The $150M and $200M outcomes form a secondary cluster. The $300M, $400M, and $1B thresholds carry comparatively thin support. Resolution requires the token to be actively and publicly transferable; a private or restricted launch does not qualify. If no qualifying launch occurs by 31 December 2026, all thresholds resolve No.

Background

Reya Network is a decentralised trading infrastructure protocol that has positioned itself as a purpose-built settlement layer for perpetuals and derivatives trading. The project operates under the handle @reya_xyz and has attracted attention within the DeFi ecosystem for its focus on capital efficiency and on-chain clearing. Token launches in the derivatives and trading infrastructure segment have historically produced wide variance in opening valuations, influenced by prevailing market sentiment, airdrop design, and the size of the circulating float at launch. Reya has not yet publicly confirmed a token launch date, meaning the December 2026 deadline functions as a meaningful contingency rather than a formality. FDV figures at launch can differ substantially from later valuations as price discovery matures in the days and weeks following initial trading.

Key factors

Several structural factors shape where the FDV lands relative to each threshold. The total token supply, which is fixed and public at launch, is one half of the FDV calculation; the other is the opening market price, which is determined by exchange listing conditions, initial liquidity depth, and prevailing sentiment toward DeFi infrastructure tokens at the time of launch. Airdrop allocation size and vesting schedules influence early sell pressure, which in turn affects price on the resolution day. Broader crypto market conditions — including Bitcoin price trends and risk appetite for altcoins — can amplify or compress valuations across all thresholds simultaneously. Competitor launches in the same window may divert liquidity and attention. The specific venue or venues where Reya lists will affect price discovery quality and which price source qualifies as most liquid for resolution. A delayed launch beyond December 2026 would trigger universal No resolution regardless of any subsequent valuation.

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