Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Prediction markets are pricing the Metamask token launch across a wide range of fully diluted valuations, with outcomes below $300M and $100M drawing the heaviest backing. The distribution is broadly spread, suggesting significant uncertainty about both the timing and the scale of any token launch. Resolution requires the token to be publicly transferable and tradable, with a deadline of 31 December 2026.

Market structure

Eight FDV threshold outcomes are available, ranging from $100M to $4B. Volume is most concentrated at the lower thresholds ($100M and $300M), with progressively less backing at higher valuations. Resolution requires active, public transferability and uses the most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. If no token launches by 31 December 2026, all outcomes resolve No.

Background

Metamask is the dominant self-custody Ethereum wallet, developed by ConsenSys, with tens of millions of active users across browser extensions and mobile. Despite persistent community speculation, no Metamask token has been issued as of mid-2025. A potential token — often discussed as MASK — has been anticipated for several years, with ConsenSys exploring options including a potential spin-out or restructuring of the Metamask product line. The broader crypto market has seen several high-profile wallet and infrastructure token launches, creating a reference point for valuation expectations. Any launch would likely be among the more closely watched token generation events in the Ethereum ecosystem given Metamask's scale and brand recognition.

Key factors

The FDV at launch would depend on several interacting variables. Initial token supply and distribution mechanics — including the proportion allocated to the public versus team, investors, and treasury — directly determine the diluted market cap at any given price. Prevailing market conditions at the time of launch would heavily influence trading prices in the first 24 hours, as would the structure of any airdrop or sale. ConsenSys's corporate situation, including any reported restructuring or fundraising activity, could affect both timing and tokenomics. If the token launches on a major centralised exchange with high liquidity, price discovery would differ from a decentralised-only launch. Broader sentiment toward Ethereum-ecosystem tokens and the regulatory environment for new token issuances in key jurisdictions would also shape early trading. The deadline mechanism means that any delay past 31 December 2026 triggers automatic No resolution regardless of subsequent events.

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