Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

This market asks whether daily ship transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz will reach specified thresholds — 20, 40, 60, or 80 or more — on any single day by 31 May 2026, as recorded by IMF Portwatch. Trading is heavily concentrated on the lowest threshold of 20 or more daily transits, with volume falling sharply at each higher level. Resolution depends on IMF Portwatch publishing a qualifying daily figure for the strait before the deadline.

Market structure

The market offers four outcome thresholds: 20+, 40+, 60+, and 80+ daily transit calls. Concentration is heavily skewed toward the lowest threshold, with each successively higher level attracting markedly less backing — producing a steep descending distribution rather than a competitive multi-outcome race. Resolution is triggered as soon as IMF Portwatch records a qualifying daily figure, or confirmed as 'No' once data covering 31 May 2026 is published, with a 14-day fallback window if publication is delayed.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is one of the world's most strategically significant maritime chokepoints. Roughly a fifth of global oil supply and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas pass through it annually. The strait has periodically been subject to disruption threats, seizures of commercial vessels, and geopolitical tension involving Iran, the United States, and Gulf states. IMF Portwatch, the resolution source, is an open-access maritime monitoring platform developed by the International Monetary Fund that tracks vessel movements and transit volumes at key global chokepoints using Automatic Identification System data. Its Strait of Hormuz dataset records daily arrivals across container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker categories.

Key factors

The primary structural factor is baseline traffic volume: the Strait of Hormuz typically sees dozens of transits daily under normal conditions, meaning lower thresholds are more readily reached than higher ones. Geopolitical escalation is a key contingency — any deterioration in relations between Iran and Western or Gulf nations, naval confrontations, or renewed threats to close the strait could suppress transit counts. Conversely, a relaxation of regional tensions or an uptick in energy demand could sustain or increase daily movements. The inclusion of only IMF Portwatch-reported vessel types — container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships — means military vessels, fishing boats, and other craft are excluded, which caps the observable count relative to total actual traffic. Data revision policies also matter: Portwatch revisions within the market window are considered, but post-deadline revisions are not, introducing a small risk of discrepancy between final published figures and subsequently corrected data.

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