#1 song in the US this week? (July 24): how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which song will be streamed the most in the United States on Spotify during the week of July 24. A Yes on 'Choosin' Texas' means Ella Langley's song finishes that week at the very top of the Spotify USA chart, beating every other song in total streams. A Yes on one of the other options means a different song beat it. Only one song can win. Spotify publishes a weekly chart every Friday showing the top songs by stream count in the US, covering the previous Friday through Thursday. This market settles based on whichever song sits at number one on that chart for the week labeled July 24. Spotify needs to publish that chart by July 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern time. If Spotify does not release the chart by that deadline, the market resolves as 'Other', meaning no listed song wins. None of the provided news headlines relate to music, charts, or any of the songs listed here. There is no relevant recent news to point to from what was provided. The kind of development worth watching would be a major new song release, a viral moment, or a cultural event that could drive a surge in streams for a competing track before the week ends on July 24. The market prices 'Choosin' Texas' at 93%, so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens, not a genuine two-sided debate. A sudden viral hit or a surprise release from a major artist could shift streaming numbers quickly. Music charts can move fast when a cultural moment lands. But the market is heavily one-sided, which reflects that such surprises are uncommon, not that the outcome is completely certain.

The odds right now

• Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley96%
• Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo2%
• Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo2%
• the cure - Olivia Rodrigo2%
• Billie Jean - Michael Jackson2%
• Earrings - Malcolm Todd2%
• Janice STFU - Drake2%
• Wonderwall Remastered - Oasis1%
• hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande1%
• I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song in the U.S. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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