Geopolitics Prediction Markets

Conflicts, treaties, sanctions, and leadership questions worldwide, with odds that move as the news does. Live odds on 157 open markets, updated continuously.

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?16%Yes$659.9K 24h
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?60%December 31$627.2K 24h
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?83%September 30$396.6K 24h
• Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?49%Gadi Eizenkot$375.4K 24h
• Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?71%United Russia (ER)$233.8K 24h
• Counter-Strike: magic vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs57%Match Winner$151.7K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?3%Yes$134.5K 24h
• Iran full airspace closure by...?28%December 31$101.6K 24h
• Putin out as President of Russia by...?14%June 30, 2027$95.4K 24h
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?18%December 31$89.7K 24h
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?8%December 31$76.7K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?27%Yes$70.2K 24h
• Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?61%March 31, 2027$67.9K 24h
• Crude Oil all time high by...?12%December 31$64.7K 24h
• Iran leadership change by...?26%June 30, 2027$63.7K 24h
• NATO x Russia military clash by...?24%December 31$56.9K 24h
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?7%Yes$56.4K 24h
• Iran leader end of 2026?83%Mojtaba Khamenei$45.8K 24h
• Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?56%China$43.0K 24h
• Israel closes its airspace by...?10%Yes$42.5K 24h
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?11%December 31$37.4K 24h
• Trump out as President before 2027?6%Yes$32.6K 24h
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?7%September 30$28.8K 24h
• Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?89%No Meeting by September 30$27.5K 24h
• Wisconsin Governor Election Winner83%David Crowley (D)$26.7K 24h
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%Yes$26.6K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?1%Yes$25.4K 24h
• Will Iran target an Arab country by...?85%September 18$24.7K 24h
• Will Iran target Iraq by...?98%September 15$24.2K 24h
• Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?1%Yes$22.4K 24h
• Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?29%Yes$21.1K 24h
• Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?97%December 31$20.8K 24h
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)69%September 30$20.6K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?14%December 31$20.2K 24h
• Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place92%Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)$20.0K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?50%June 30, 2027$19.8K 24h
• United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?37%325–339$18.5K 24h
• Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?55%September 15$18.1K 24h
• Will a Chinese company have a top … AI model by December 31?36%#3$17.3K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?10%Yes$16.9K 24h
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?34%October 31$16.8K 24h
• Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?12%Yes$15.6K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?46%December 31$14.1K 24h
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?35%December 31$13.9K 24h
• Netanyahu out by...?48%Yes$13.4K 24h
• Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?31%December 31$13.3K 24h
• Israel military action against Beirut by...?50%October 31$12.9K 24h
• Nothing Ever Happens: 202682%Yes$12.5K 24h
• Bank of Russia decision in September?63%No Change$12.5K 24h
• Who will Trump meet with in 2026?67%Mohammed bin Salman$12.1K 24h
• Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?9%Yes$11.4K 24h
• Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?90%December 31$11.3K 24h
• Best Chinese AI Company end of September?74%Alibaba$10.9K 24h
• Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?95%December 31$10.7K 24h
• Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?11%Yes$10.1K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?18%Yes$9.7K 24h
• Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?65%Yes$9.5K 24h
• Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by...?45%October 31$9.5K 24h
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?5%Yes$9.1K 24h
• Nobel Peace Prize Winner 20268%Yulia Navalnaya$9.0K 24h
• Russia Parliamentary Election Winner99%United Russia (ER)$7.9K 24h
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?28%Yes$7.8K 24h
• Alaska Governor Election Winner60%Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins$7.7K 24h
• Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?22%December 31$7.7K 24h
• New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner97%Chris Pappas$7.6K 24h
• Cuban regime falls in 2026?13%Yes$7.5K 24h
• Will Iran target Bahrain by...?99%September 15$7.4K 24h
• Will Russia enter Hannivka by...?97%September 30$7.1K 24h
• Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?93%No meeting before 2027$7.0K 24h
• Will Iran target Kuwait by...?100%September 30$7.0K 24h
• Abia, Nigeria Governor Election Winner90%Otti Alex Chioma$6.7K 24h
• Adamawa, Nigeria Governor Election Winner56%Ahmed Galadima$6.0K 24h
• Venezuela leader end of 2026?84%Nicolás Maduro$5.8K 24h
• Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?33%September 30$5.6K 24h
• Who will Trump speak to in September?96%Andy Burnham$5.2K 24h
• Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?1%Yes$5.1K 24h
• French Senate Election: 2nd Most Seats?48%SER$4.9K 24h
• Will Russia capture Sumy by...?10%Yes$4.9K 24h
• Trump meets with Putin by...?60%December 31$4.9K 24h
• Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?14%Yes$4.8K 24h
• Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?9%Yes$4.7K 24h
• China x Japan military clash before 2027?7%Yes$4.3K 24h
• Will Russia capture Lyman by...?22%December 31$4.1K 24h
• Trnava Region Governor Election Winner72%Jozef Viskupič$4.1K 24h
• US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?48%December 31$4.0K 24h
• Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?97%September 15$3.9K 24h
• Will Russia invade another country in 2026?8%Yes$3.9K 24h
• Will Iran target Qatar by...?51%September 30$3.9K 24h
• What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?11%Iran Reconstruction Funding$3.7K 24h
• Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?89%Dopropillia$3.7K 24h
• Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner99%Helena Foulkes$3.7K 24h
• Iran invades Kuwait by...?6%December 31$3.7K 24h
• Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner94%Elaine Pelino$3.7K 24h
• Will Iran target Syria by...?10%September 30$3.6K 24h
• Moscow air traffic suspended by...?59%Yes$3.6K 24h
• Nayarit Governor Election Winner48%Héctor Santana García$3.6K 24h
• Acre Governor Election Winner55%Alan Rick$3.3K 24h
• Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?11%Yes$3.2K 24h
• How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?75%20-39$3.1K 24h
• Florida Senate Election: Broward County Winner96%Angie Nixon (D)$3.1K 24h
• Žilina Region Governor Election Winner67%Erika Jurinová$3.0K 24h
• Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?2%Yes$3.0K 24h
• Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner94%Eduardo Paes$2.9K 24h
• Will Russia target Kyiv on...?88%September 3$2.9K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?80%December 31$2.9K 24h
• Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?2%Yes$2.9K 24h
• Will Iran target Oman by...?14%September 30$2.8K 24h
• Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?95%A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)$2.8K 24h
• Who will Trump publicly praise in September?96%Xi Jinping$2.8K 24h
• China x Philippines military clash before 2027?33%Yes$2.7K 24h
• Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?4%Yes$2.6K 24h
• How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?34%190-209$2.6K 24h
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?7%Yes$2.5K 24h
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?40%December 31$2.4K 24h
• Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 3 Playoffs76%Match Winner$2.3K 24h
• Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?18%Alibaba$2.3K 24h
• Amazonas Governor Election Winner55%Omar Aziz$2.3K 24h
• USD x Iranian rials End of September?90%2.2M+$2.3K 24h
• Plateau, Nigeria Governor Election Winner81%Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh$2.2K 24h
• Texas Senate Election: Collin County Winner60%James Talarico (D)$2.2K 24h
• Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?33%Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf$2.1K 24h
• Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?85%December 31$2.1K 24h
• Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?27%December 31$2.1K 24h
• California Governor Election Winner96%Xavier Becerra$2.0K 24h
• Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?52%December 31$2.0K 24h
• Nuevo León Governor Election Winner30%Adrián de la Garza Santos$2.0K 24h
• T20 Asia Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs India99%India$1.9K 24h
• 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?19%Yes$1.8K 24h
• Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?10%Indonesia$1.8K 24h
• Nitra Region Governor Election Winner78%Branislav Becík$1.8K 24h
• Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?43%1$1.8K 24h
• Who will Trump meet with in September?99%Andy Burnham$1.8K 24h
• Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC vs. Hapoel Haifa FC - Exact Score13%Any Other Score$1.7K 24h
• Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?12%Yes$1.7K 24h
• Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?1%Yes$1.6K 24h
• Which cities face tornado risk on September 2?2%Des Moines, IA$1.6K 24h
• Bahia Governor Election Winner55%ACM Neto$1.6K 24h
• Israel military action against Syria by...?16%September 30$1.5K 24h
• Israeli Legislative Election Winner55%Yashar$1.4K 24h
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?5%December 31$1.4K 24h
• Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?19%December 31$1.4K 24h
• Will Israel election happen as scheduled?89%Yes$1.3K 24h
• China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?7%Yes$1.3K 24h
• AI bubble burst by...?10%Yes$1.3K 24h
• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?12%June 30, 2027$1.3K 24h
• How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?76%4$1.2K 24h
• Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?6%Yes$1.2K 24h
• Taipei Mayor Election Winner93%Chiang Wan-an$1.2K 24h
• Will Iran target Ukraine by...?2%Yes$1.2K 24h
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?66%Alibaba$1.2K 24h
• Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)40%Netanyahu - Israel PM$1.1K 24h
• Israel Election: Yashar & Together Run on Same List?6%Yes$1.1K 24h
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?7%Yes$1.1K 24h
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?5%Yes$1.1K 24h
• How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?31%22–23$1.1K 24h
• Will Russia capture Shevchenko by...?54%Yes$1.1K 24h
• Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?30%Yes$1.1K 24h