Geopolitics Prediction Markets

Conflicts, treaties, sanctions, and leadership questions worldwide, with odds that move as the news does. Live odds on 224 open markets, updated continuously.

• US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?93%October 24$1.3M 24h
• Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?49%Gadi Eizenkot$1.1M 24h
• NATO x Russia military clash by...?37%December 31$542.2K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?98%November 30$385.1K 24h
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?95%October 24$341.5K 24h
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?59%March 31$200.4K 24h
• Putin out as President of Russia by...?10%June 30, 2027$155.9K 24h
• Bank of Russia decision in October?82%No Change$136.3K 24h
• Iran full airspace closure by...?40%December 31$135.3K 24h
• Israeli Legislative Election Winner70%Yashar$132.9K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?81%December 31$123.3K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?72%December 31, 2027$102.1K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?53%December 31, 2027$90.1K 24h
• Nobel Peace Prize Winner 20279%Donald Trump$89.9K 24h
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?17%Yes$83.8K 24h
• Taipei Mayor Election Winner65%Chiang Wan-an$82.7K 24h
• Trump out as President before 2027?4%Yes$80.1K 24h
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?14%December 31$78.8K 24h
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?2%Yes$69.9K 24h
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?21%Yes$63.4K 24h
• Texas Governor Election Winner70%Greg Abbott (R)$56.8K 24h
• Iran coup attempt by...?24%December 31, 2027$54.1K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?1%Yes$53.7K 24h
• Next leader out of power before 2027?47%None before 2027$53.5K 24h
• Iran leadership change by...?24%June 30, 2027$52.8K 24h
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?6%Yes$52.0K 24h
• VfB Stuttgart vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach72%VfB Stuttgart$51.2K 24h
• Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?66%Oil ≥ $85; D Senate$50.6K 24h
• Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?35%Yes$47.8K 24h
• Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?67%Oil ≥ $80; D Senate$46.5K 24h
• Ohio Governor Election Winner83%Amy Acton (D)$44.8K 24h
• Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?88%No Hormuz Agreement$43.8K 24h
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?3%Yes$41.5K 24h
• Israel Election: Likud # of seats?42%20-24$40.9K 24h
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?74%Yes$40.8K 24h
• Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?35%Jared Kushner$40.2K 24h
• Will Russia target Kyiv on...?90%October 26$39.6K 24h
• Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?2%Yes$36.0K 24h
• California Governor Election Winner97%Xavier Becerra$36.0K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?12%Yes$35.6K 24h
• Nevada Governor Election Winner67%Aaron Ford (D)$33.2K 24h
• US imports Russian diesel by...?79%December 31$30.5K 24h
• Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?28%DeepSeek$28.7K 24h
• Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?92%No meeting before 2027$28.0K 24h
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?34%December 31$25.1K 24h
• Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?99%No Hormuz Agreement$24.9K 24h
• VfB Stuttgart vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach - More Markets99%Borussia Mönchengladbach (-3.5)$24.5K 24h
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?9%December 31$23.7K 24h
• Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?69%No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate$21.4K 24h
• Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)27%December 31$20.5K 24h
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?16%December 31$20.2K 24h
• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?9%June 30, 2027$19.5K 24h
• US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?94%October 31$19.5K 24h
• Michigan Governor Election Winner94%Jocelyn Benson (D)$18.6K 24h
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?56%Xiaomi$17.8K 24h
• Saudi airspace closed by...?25%December 31$17.6K 24h
• Who will Trump meet with in 2026?84%Vladimir Putin$17.6K 24h
• Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?71%25-29$16.6K 24h
• Iran leader end of 2026?85%Mojtaba Khamenei$16.3K 24h
• Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?5%Yes$15.8K 24h
• Iowa Governor Election Winner89%Rob Sand (D)$14.1K 24h
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?7%Yes$13.9K 24h
• Florida Governor Election Winner81%Byron Donalds (R) $13.6K 24h
• Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?35%December 31, 2026$13.4K 24h
• Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?61%January 31, 2027$13.2K 24h
• Massachusetts Governor Election Winner96%Maura Healey (D)$13.2K 24h
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?6%December 31$13.1K 24h
• Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?48%November 30$12.7K 24h
• New York Governor Election Winner96%Kathy Hochul (D)$12.7K 24h
• Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?20%December 31, 2028$12.7K 24h
• Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 175%O/U 2.5 Games$12.4K 24h
• Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?32%Oil ≥ $80; R Senate$12.0K 24h
• Arizona Governor Election Winner93%Katie Hobbs (D)$11.7K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?6%Yes$11.2K 24h
• Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?3%Yes$10.7K 24h
• Alaska Governor Election Winner89%Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins$10.6K 24h
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?70%October 23$10.4K 24h
• Venezuela leader end of 2026?76%Nicolás Maduro$10.1K 24h
• Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?24%Yes$9.6K 24h
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?59%June 30, 2027$9.6K 24h
• Next Israeli Minister of Defense?38%No Next Minister by Feb 28$8.7K 24h
• Houthis enter Aden by...?23%December 31$8.5K 24h
• Who will be arrested before 2027?22%John Brennan$8.2K 24h
• Valorant: TEC Esports vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 169%Match Winner$7.9K 24h
• Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?26%December 31, 2028$7.7K 24h
• Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?14%December 31$7.5K 24h
• Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?30%December 31, 2028$7.4K 24h
• Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?6%Yes$6.6K 24h
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?70%October 27$6.4K 24h
• Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?79%China$6.4K 24h
• New Taipei Mayor Election Winner53%Su Chiao-hui$6.3K 24h
• Will Israel election happen as scheduled?93%Yes$6.3K 24h
• Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?49%Alibaba$6.2K 24h
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?31%December 31$6.2K 24h
• Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?68%No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate$6.1K 24h
• Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?56%Yes$6.0K 24h
• Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?11%December 31$5.9K 24h
• Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?62%Gadi Eizenkot$5.6K 24h
• Next Israeli Minister of Justice?42%No Next Minister by Feb 28$5.6K 24h
• Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?87%Yes$5.5K 24h
• Oklahoma Governor Election Winner92%Mike Mazzei (R)$5.3K 24h
• Colima Governor Election Winner75%Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera$5.1K 24h
• Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?30%Alibaba$4.9K 24h
• Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?9%Indonesia$4.9K 24h
• Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?10%Yes$4.8K 24h
• Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?66%UAE$4.7K 24h
• Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate41%Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems$4.6K 24h
• Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?34%No Next Minister by Feb 28$4.6K 24h
• FK Polissia vs. FK Obolon Kyiv - Exact Score30%FK Polissia 0 - 5 FK Obolon Kyiv$4.6K 24h
• FK Polissia vs. FK Obolon Kyiv - More Markets98%O/U 6.5$4.5K 24h
• Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?72%October 25$4.3K 24h
• Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?30%December 31, 2028$4.1K 24h
• AI bubble burst by...?21%June 30, 2027$4.1K 24h
• Georgia Governor Election Winner62%Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)$3.9K 24h
• Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?86%October 23$3.8K 24h
• Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?0%Yes$3.8K 24h
• FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. FK Kudrivka - More Markets98%FK Kudrivka (-1.5)$3.8K 24h
• FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. FK Kudrivka83%FK Dynamo Kyiv$3.6K 24h
• FK Polissia vs. FK Obolon Kyiv82%FK Polissia$3.5K 24h
• Vermont Governor Election Winner75%Phil Scott (R)$3.3K 24h
• How many Mexico border seats will Dems win in the house?71%9+$3.3K 24h
• Wisconsin Governor Election Winner81%David Crowley (D)$3.3K 24h
• China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?47%4.3-4.6%$3.2K 24h
• Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?94%Flávio Bolsonaro$3.1K 24h
• Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?34%December 31, 2028$3.1K 24h
• Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?57%Opp.$3.1K 24h
• Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?21%December 31$3.1K 24h
• Trump meets with Putin by...?84%December 31$3.1K 24h
• South Carolina Governor Election Margin of Victory30%Republican 10-15%$3.0K 24h
• Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?95%0-5$3.0K 24h
• Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?59%President$3.0K 24h
• China x Japan military clash before 2027?4%Yes$3.0K 24h
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?7%Yes$2.9K 24h
• US military action against Cuba by...?9%Yes$2.9K 24h
• China x Philippines military clash before 2027?23%Yes$2.9K 24h
• Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?96%Ra'am$2.7K 24h
• Texas Senate and Governor Combo40%Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate$2.7K 24h
• Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?12%December 31$2.7K 24h
• Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?10%Yes$2.7K 24h
• Oregon Governor Election Winner84%Tina Kotek (D)$2.6K 24h
• Will Iran target Jordan by...?36%Yes$2.6K 24h
• Rhode Island Governor Election Margin of Victory21%Democrat 10-15%$2.6K 24h
• USD x Iranian rials End of October?37%2.7-2.8M$2.5K 24h
• Crude Oil all time high by...?24%March 31, 2027$2.5K 24h
• Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?2%Yes$2.5K 24h
• Will Russia invade another country by...?20%December 31, 2027$2.5K 24h
• Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory25%Donalds 3-6%$2.5K 24h
• Worlds 2026 Winning Region73%LCK (South Korea)$2.4K 24h
• Russia military action against EU country by...?23%December 31, 2027$2.4K 24h
• Iran Nuke before 2027?4%Yes$2.3K 24h
• VfB Stuttgart vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach - Exact Score21%Any Other Score$2.3K 24h
• Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?2%Yes$2.3K 24h
• Taichung Mayor Election Winner71%Johnny Chiang$2.2K 24h
• New Mexico Governor Election Winner95%Deb Haaland (D)$2.2K 24h
• Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory24%Abbott 3-6%$2.1K 24h
• Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)47%December 31$2.0K 24h
• Iowa Senate and Governor Combo53%Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate$2.0K 24h
• Who will Trump speak to by October 31?38%Lula da Silva$2.0K 24h
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?33%December 31, 2027$2.0K 24h
• Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?22%Saudi Arabia$2.0K 24h
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?3%Yes$2.0K 24h
• Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?30%No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate$1.9K 24h
• Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?37%Yes$1.9K 24h
• FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. FK Kudrivka - Exact Score30%FK Dynamo Kyiv 0 - 5 FK Kudrivka$1.9K 24h
• Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?11%Yes$1.9K 24h
• Modi out by December 31, 2026?4%Yes$1.9K 24h
• Nebraska Senate Election: Turnout38%750K-800K$1.8K 24h
• Nebraska Governor Election Margin of Victory27%Republican 10-15%$1.8K 24h
• How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 26?40%25-29$1.8K 24h
• Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis)?34%10.5% to 11.5%$1.8K 24h
• Hawaii Governor Election Margin of Victory20%Democrat 35-40%$1.8K 24h
• Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?75%Yashar$1.8K 24h
• Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?24%Yes$1.7K 24h
• Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?18%Yes$1.7K 24h
• Next Secretary-General of the United Nations28%Lana Nusseibeh$1.7K 24h
• USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?95%November 30$1.7K 24h
• Who will Trump meet with by October 31?18%Sam Altman$1.7K 24h
• Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?65%No Meeting by December 31$1.6K 24h
• Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?28%December 31, 2028$1.6K 24h
• Israeli Legislative Election: Turnout30%74%+$1.6K 24h
• Hapoel Beer Sheva vs. Hapoel Holon BC62%Hapoel Holon BC$1.6K 24h
• Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?65%Yes$1.6K 24h
• Best Chinese AI Company end of November?30%Xiaomi$1.6K 24h
• Iowa Governor Election Margin of Victory23%Sand 3-6%$1.6K 24h
• October Inflation China - Annual40%0.9% to 1.0%$1.5K 24h
• Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...?24%December 31$1.5K 24h
• Michigan Senate Election: Turnout30%4.6M-4.8M$1.5K 24h
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?5%Yes$1.5K 24h
• Georgia Senate and Governor Combo59%Dems sweep$1.5K 24h
• Nevada Governor Election Margin of Victory23%Ford 0-3%$1.5K 24h
• U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?6%Yes$1.5K 24h
• How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?24%190-209$1.5K 24h
• Iowa Senate Election: Turnout28%1.45M-1.5M$1.4K 24h
• Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?9%Yes$1.4K 24h
• Texas Senate Election: Tarrant County Winner88%James Talarico (D)$1.4K 24h
• Will Man City be relegated from the EPL in 2026-27?56%Yes$1.3K 24h
• How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?34%4-7$1.3K 24h
• Bank of Russia decision in December?62%No change$1.3K 24h
• WTA Tennis: Ningbo, China Winner50%Ekaterina Alexandrova$1.3K 24h
• Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?58%March 31, 2027$1.3K 24h
• Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?11%Yes$1.3K 24h
• Virginia Senate Election: Turnout42%3.5M-3.75M$1.3K 24h
• Israel military action against Beirut by...?12%Yes$1.3K 24h
• Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?10%Thom Tillis$1.3K 24h
• US strike on Colombia by...?27%Yes$1.2K 24h
• Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?6%Zhao Leji$1.2K 24h
• RNK Veres Rivne vs. FK Kolos Kovalivka - More Markets99%O/U 6.5$1.2K 24h
• Tennessee Governor Election Margin of Victory28%Republican 15-20%$1.2K 24h
• Delaware Senate Election: Turnout26%375K-400K$1.1K 24h
• Akwa Ibom, Nigeria Governor Election Winner69%Eno Umo Bassey$1.1K 24h
• Israel military action against Lebanon on...?92%October 23$1.1K 24h
• Israel Election: Together # of seats?46%14-16$1.1K 24h
• Michigan Senate Election: Oakland County Winner91%Abdul El-Sayed (D)$1.1K 24h
• Will US withdraw from NATO by...?2%Yes$1.1K 24h
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?10%Yes$1.1K 24h
• Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place67%Likud$1.1K 24h
• Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory37%Aziz 15%+$1.1K 24h
• Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout49%2M-2.2M$1.1K 24h
• Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?40%6-7%$1.0K 24h
• Will Russia capture Svitle by...?78%December 31$1.0K 24h
• Will a Chinese company have a top … AI model by December 31?28%#3$1.0K 24h
• Ohio Senate and Governor Combo68%Dems sweep$1.0K 24h
• Israel Election: Religious Zionist Party–Zehut vote share?34%6%+$1.0K 24h
• Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of December?33%Moonshot$1.0K 24h