Geopolitics Prediction Markets

Conflicts, treaties, sanctions, and leadership questions worldwide, with odds that move as the news does. Live odds on 161 open markets, updated continuously.

• Iran leader end of 2026?78%Mojtaba Khamenei$1.8M 24h
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?28%Yes$693.8K 24h
• Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?28%August 15$407.4K 24h
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)51%August 31$312.1K 24h
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?11%Yes$296.4K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?1%Yes$292.6K 24h
• Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)100%Starmer - UK PM$192.2K 24h
• Iran military action against a gulf state on...?73%July 19$163.3K 24h
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?98%July 18$134.5K 24h
• Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?50%Gadi Eizenkot$122.7K 24h
• Iran full airspace closure by...?50%August 31$104.2K 24h
• California Governor Election Winner94%Xavier Becerra$88.8K 24h
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%Yes$87.6K 24h
• Putin out as President of Russia by...?20%June 30, 2027$76.1K 24h
• Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?44%August 31$68.3K 24h
• Houthis successfully target shipping by...?56%August 31$66.6K 24h
• US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?33%August 31$62.4K 24h
• South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner47%Darline Graham Nordone$58.1K 24h
• Iran leadership change by...?31%June 30, 2027$51.0K 24h
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?44%August 31$50.7K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?12%Yes$47.8K 24h
• Nobel Peace Prize Winner 202610%Yulia Navalnaya$46.2K 24h
• Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?34%No Meeting by September 30$39.3K 24h
• Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?6%July 31$35.5K 24h
• Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?56%United Russia (ER)$33.9K 24h
• Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?12%Yes$32.3K 24h
• Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?12%Yes$32.3K 24h
• Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?4%Yes$31.6K 24h
• Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?7%Yes$31.3K 24h
• US charges Hormuz fees by...?9%December 31$30.3K 24h
• Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?8%Yes$30.2K 24h
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?30%December 31$29.8K 24h
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?10%Yes$29.8K 24h
• Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?4%Yes$26.9K 24h
• Oleksandr Syrskyi out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by...?46%December 31$26.0K 24h
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?35%Yes$23.7K 24h
• Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?91%Yes$23.6K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?52%Yes$22.0K 24h
• Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?8%Yes$21.9K 24h
• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?10%Yes$21.7K 24h
• Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?10%Yes$21.0K 24h
• Russia Parliamentary Election Winner97%United Russia (ER)$18.5K 24h
• Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?86%August 31$18.2K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?36%December 31$15.5K 24h
• Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner66%Francesca Hong$14.9K 24h
• Venezuela leader end of 2026?79%Nicolás Maduro$14.4K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?64%August 31$14.1K 24h
• Crude Oil all time high by...?14%December 31$13.9K 24h
• Trump out as President before 2027?8%Yes$13.7K 24h
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?65%December 31$13.2K 24h
• Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)61%None before 2027$12.4K 24h
• US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?77%August 31$12.3K 24h
• Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?14%Yes$12.1K 24h
• Bank of Russia decision in July?73%No Change$11.7K 24h
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?12%December 31$11.5K 24h
• Netanyahu out by...?36%December 31$11.4K 24h
• Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?82%0-20$11.4K 24h
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?14%December 31$11.1K 24h
• Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?19%Somaliland$11.0K 24h
• Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?19%Somaliland$11.0K 24h
• How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?39%7$10.9K 24h
• How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?38%7$10.9K 24h
• How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?26%325–339$10.9K 24h
• How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?26%325–339$10.9K 24h
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?22%Yes$10.2K 24h
• Israel military action against Yemen by...?12%July 31$9.7K 24h
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?14%Yes$9.6K 24h
• 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?12%Yes$9.6K 24h
• Counter-Strike: Ukraine vs Estonia (BO3) - Esports Nations Cup East European Qualifier Playoffs100%Map 1 Winner$8.6K 24h
• Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner97%Byron Donalds$7.9K 24h
• USD x Iranian rials End of July?77%1.9M+$7.6K 24h
• Israel Election: Likud # of seats?29%25-29$7.5K 24h
• How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?44%4$7.3K 24h
• Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?4%Yes$7.1K 24h
• Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner89%Jorginho Mello$7.0K 24h
• Modi out by December 31, 2026?4%Yes$7.0K 24h
• Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout29%53-56%$6.4K 24h
• Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner66%Abdul El-Sayed$6.4K 24h
• Next Secretary-General of the United Nations47%Rafael Grossi$6.3K 24h
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?5%Yes$6.2K 24h
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?49%December 31$6.1K 24h
• Who will Trump meet with in July?99%Joseph Aoun$5.8K 24h
• UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?27%Yes$5.8K 24h
• Israeli Legislative Election Winner52%Likud$5.7K 24h
• Will Trump visit North Korea by...?4%Yes$5.6K 24h
• Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?3%Yes$5.3K 24h
• Bank of Russia decision in September?44%No Change$5.1K 24h
• Houthi military action against Israel by...?10%July 31$4.9K 24h
• US military action against Cuba by...?31%Yes$4.9K 24h
• Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?28%July 31$4.9K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?59%December 31$4.4K 24h
• How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13?98%<100$4.4K 24h
• Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?22%September 30$4.1K 24h
• Nothing Ever Happens: 202668%Yes$4.0K 24h
• Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?88%No meeting before 2027$4.0K 24h
• Will any country leave NATO by...?4%Yes$4.0K 24h
• Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?49%No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026$3.9K 24h
• Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?1%Yes$3.8K 24h
• NATO article 5 before 2027?8%Yes$3.7K 24h
• Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?41%December 31$3.3K 24h
• Valorant: EDward Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha83%Match Winner$3.1K 24h
• Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?24%December 31$3.0K 24h
• Cuban regime falls in 2026?12%Yes$3.0K 24h
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?19%Yes$3.0K 24h
• US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?5%Yes$2.9K 24h
• Ceará Governor Election Winner68%Ciro Gomes$2.9K 24h
• Valorant: Trace Esports vs Nova Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha69%Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5$2.8K 24h
• Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner46%Cleitinho Azevedo$2.7K 24h
• Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?8%Yes$2.7K 24h
• China Annual Inflation 202645%0.6 – 1.0%$2.6K 24h
• Israel election: will Likud lose seats?77%Yes$2.6K 24h
• Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?57%Dopropillia$2.6K 24h
• People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?86%No Change$2.6K 24h
• Russia coup attempt in 2026?7%Yes$2.5K 24h
• Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner82%John James$2.5K 24h
• Israel military action against Beirut by...?57%August 31$2.4K 24h
• Will Russia invade another country in 2026?8%Yes$2.4K 24h
• Who will Trump meet with in 2026?62%Mohammed bin Salman$2.4K 24h
• Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner53%Lisa Demuth$2.4K 24h
• Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?11%December 31, 2026$2.3K 24h
• China x Philippines military clash before 2027?10%Yes$2.2K 24h
• Will US withdraw from NATO by...?3%December 31$2.1K 24h
• Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner88%Adam Hamilton$2.1K 24h
• Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner76%Megan Degenfelder$2.1K 24h
• Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?6%Yes$2.0K 24h
• Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?15%Yes$2.0K 24h
• Yoon out of custody before 2027?12%Yes$2.0K 24h
• Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?12%Yes$2.0K 24h
• NATO x Russia military clash by...?18%Yes$1.9K 24h
• Kansas Governor Republican Primary Winner82%Ty Masterson$1.9K 24h
• Will Russia enter Serhiivka by...?54%December 31$1.9K 24h
• Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?8%Yes$1.9K 24h
• Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?26%United States$1.8K 24h
• Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by...?11%September 30$1.8K 24h
• Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?23%Venezuela$1.7K 24h
• Nothing Ever Happens: July95%Nothing$1.7K 24h
• Georgia Governor Election Winner56%Democrat$1.7K 24h
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?30%July 31$1.7K 24h
• Ukraine election called by...?18%December 31, 2026$1.6K 24h
• Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026?21%Yes$1.6K 24h
• Worlds 2026 Winning Region63%LCK (South Korea)$1.5K 24h
• Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner77%Peggy Flanagan$1.5K 24h
• Who will Trump publicly praise by July 31?62%Weijia Jiang$1.4K 24h
• Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?20%December 31$1.4K 24h
• China x Japan military clash before 2027?7%Yes$1.4K 24h
• Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?20%December 31$1.3K 24h
• Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place69%Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)$1.3K 24h
• How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?56%<220$1.3K 24h
• Kansas Governor Democratic Primary Winner73%Cindy Holscher$1.3K 24h
• Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?25%December 31$1.2K 24h
• Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?18%December 31$1.2K 24h
• US takes Panama Canal before 2027?5%Yes$1.2K 24h
• Maduro Prison Time?34%No prison time$1.1K 24h
• Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?3%Yes$1.1K 24h
• US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?34%August 31$1.1K 24h
• Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?7%Yes$1.1K 24h
• US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?48%December 31$1.1K 24h
• Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?5%Yes$1.0K 24h
• What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (July 13 - July 19)52%Hormuz$1.0K 24h
• Who will be arrested before 2027?42%John Brennan$1.0K 24h
• Number of North Korea Missile Tests in July 2026?35%1$1.0K 24h