AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which Republican candidate will win the party's primary election for Arizona's 5th congressional district seat in the U.S. House. A win for Mark Lamb means he becomes the Republican nominee who will represent the party in the general election. A win for Daniel Keenan means he gets that spot instead. This is only about the primary, not the general election itself: it is about who the Republican Party picks as its candidate, not who ultimately wins the seat in November. The market settles on whoever wins the Republican primary vote in Arizona's 5th district, with that result confirmed by official Republican Party sources. The primary took place on July 21, 2026, which is today. If no nominee is confirmed by November 3, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other'. One important detail: if the nominee later drops out or is replaced before the general election, that does not change this market's result. Whoever won the primary is locked in as the resolution, regardless of what happens after. There is a headline from today noting that Arizona primaries are setting the stage for contested fall races in a swing state, which is directly relevant since the AZ-05 Republican primary is happening today. However, the headline does not include specific results or vote counts from this race. No other provided headlines relate to this market. The key thing to watch for now is the official primary result from Arizona election authorities. The market prices Lamb at 88% and Keenan at 13%, so this is quite lopsided, not a close contest in the market's view. The honest uncertainty here is not really 'who has the stronger argument' but simply whether something unexpected happens: a surprise turnout pattern, a late-breaking development, or a counting outcome that defies expectations. Since the primary is happening today and results are not yet confirmed, there is still a small window of genuine unknowns before official results are in.

The odds right now

• Mark Lamb+1.4 pts (1w)88%
• Daniel Keenan-1.5 pts (1w)13%
• Jay Feely0%
• Travis Grantham0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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