Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Chicago's air will be clean enough, below a specific pollution threshold, at least once during a window of a few days in mid-to-late July 2026. The number in question is the PM2.5 Air Quality Index, which measures tiny airborne particles that can harm lungs. An AQI below 100 is generally considered acceptable for most people; above 100 signals that sensitive groups may start to feel effects. So in plain terms: does Chicago get at least one reasonably clear-air day in that stretch? The market settles Yes if Chicago's official daily PM2.5 AQI reading comes in below 100 on any single day between July 17 and the target date (July 19, 20, or 21, depending on which version you're looking at). The data comes from the U.S. government's AirNow website, specifically the historical daily AQI table for Illinois. One important edge case: the market can stay open two extra days to wait for finalized numbers, and if data never arrives, organizers will find another credible source. None of the provided news headlines relate to Chicago's air quality or anything that would affect it, they cover topics from India and Thailand. There's no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch: weather forecasts for Chicago in mid-July (wind, rain, and humidity all affect air quality), and any reports of wildfire smoke drifting into the Midwest, which has caused surprise pollution spikes in recent summers. Air quality can shift dramatically within a single day based on wind direction, temperature, and smoke from distant wildfires, none of which is easy to predict weeks out. The three date options show very different odds (48% for July 19, up to 81% for July 21), which makes sense: more days in the window means more chances for at least one clean day. The biggest wildcard is wildfire smoke, which has repeatedly pushed Midwest cities above AQI 100 with little warning in recent years, making even a 'clean' forecast unreliable.

The odds right now

• July 2076%
• July 2155%
• July 193%
• July 181%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chicago" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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