Highest temperature in Chicago on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, how hot will Chicago get? Specifically, it wants to know which two-degree temperature band, like 86, 87°F or 84, 85°F, will contain the single highest temperature of that day, measured at O'Hare International Airport. Think of it as predicting the peak of the thermometer on one specific summer afternoon in Chicago, rounded to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit. The market settles based on the highest temperature reading recorded at Chicago O'Hare Airport (station KORD) on July 20, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whichever two-degree range that peak temperature falls into wins. The reading must be a whole number, no decimals. The market waits until the first data point from July 21 appears before it officially closes, so any late corrections to July 20 readings made before that cutoff still count. After that, the number is locked in. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. That's not unusual, weather forecasts this far out (over a year away) don't exist yet. What would matter closer to the date: extended forecasts for the Chicago area in mid-to-late July 2026, any heat wave patterns developing in the Midwest, and official National Weather Service outlooks for that week. A year-plus out, weather is simply unknowable, even the best meteorologists can't forecast a specific day's high temperature more than about two weeks in advance with any reliability. The market currently leans toward 86, 87°F at 36%, which reflects Chicago's typical late-July averages, but summer temperatures in Chicago swing widely: cool fronts, heat domes, and lake breezes can all shift the day's peak by 10°F or more. The core uncertainty here isn't about competing interpretations, it's just that the atmosphere hasn't decided yet.

The odds right now

• 84-85°F31%
• 86-87°F30%
• 88-89°F17%
• 82-83°F14%
• 90-91°F5%
• 80-81°F3%
• 92-93°F2%
• 79°F or below1%
• 96-97°F0%
• 94-95°F0%
• 98°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.