Elon Musk # tweets July 23 - July 25, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is simply asking how many times Elon Musk posts on X during a 48-hour window, from noon on July 23 to noon on July 25, 2026. Yes or No does not apply here: instead, you are picking a range. Under 40 posts means a quieter stretch for him. 40 to 64 is the middle range, which the market currently considers most likely. 65 to 89 would mean an unusually active two days. Only original posts, quote posts, and reposts count, not replies. The market settles based on the total post count shown by a specific tracking tool at xtracker.polymarket.com for that exact 48-hour window. The count includes original posts, quote posts, and reposts. Replies do not count, with one exception: if a reply appears on his main feed rather than inside a thread, it does count. Deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within about five minutes. Whichever count range his total falls into is the outcome that resolves as correct. None of the provided news headlines are meaningfully related to Elon Musk's posting activity on X. To track this market well, the things worth watching are any major public events involving Musk, news about Tesla or SpaceX, political developments he tends to comment on, or anything that has historically triggered a burst of activity from him on the platform. Musk's posting volume can swing wildly based on mood, news cycles, and what is happening in his companies or in politics. A single controversy or product launch can push him from a quiet day to dozens of posts in hours. There is also no public signal in advance of how active he will be. The market prices the 40-64 range as most likely at 47%, reflecting a moderate expectation, but the spread across three ranges shows real uncertainty. His behavior is genuinely hard to forecast even a short time out.

The odds right now

• 40-6452%
• <4031%
• 65-8917%
• 90-1143%
• 115-1391%
• 140-1640%
• 165-1890%
• 190-2140%
• 215-2390%
• 240+0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 23 12:00 PM ET to July 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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