Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Amsterdam get on July 14, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature of the day — the peak reading — at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, measured in whole degrees Celsius. The three options are 27°C (about 81°F), 28°C (about 82°F), or 29°C (about 84°F). The market currently favors 28°C as the most likely peak, with 29°C as the second choice. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket — 27°C, 28°C, or 29°C, or any other whole-degree value — matches the highest reading recorded at Schiphol Airport on July 14, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. The reading must be in whole degrees Celsius; fractions are not used. The final number is locked in once the first data point for July 15 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is a seasonal weather forecast or climate outlook for the Netherlands in mid-July 2026 — for instance, whether meteorologists are tracking an unusually warm or cool summer pattern over Western Europe as that date approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now. Mid-July in Amsterdam typically sees highs in the mid-to-upper 20s°C, which is why those buckets dominate — but any given day can swing cooler from cloud cover or Atlantic airflow, or hotter during a heat wave. The difference between 27°C, 28°C, and 29°C is just a couple of degrees, well within normal daily variation, making the specific outcome difficult to call even close to the date.

The odds right now

• 28°C49%
• 29°C36%
• 27°C9%
• 30°C8%
• 26°C2%
• 31°C1%
• 25°C1%
• 24°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%
• 23°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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